The crackdown is coming on the mound doctors, and baseball believes it will have new numbers to spin

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This article was published 18/06/2021 (1612 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

After a series of leaked reports and a lot of contentious public debate, Major League Baseball’s crackdown on the use of foreign substances by pitchers is about to begin.

Starting Monday, pitchers will be ejected and suspended 10 games with pay for using illegal substances to doctor baseballs. Umpires will be tasked with random checks of pitchers and, unlike before, they won’t be following cues from opposing managers prior to taking action.

The move is designed to level the playing field between hitters and pitchers at a time when fewer balls are being put in play than ever before. Batting averages reached all-time lows earlier this year, walks and strikeouts are up and, after years of looking the other way, the league decided it finally needed to address the troubling trends.

The crackdown is expected to affect a pitcher’s ability to manipulate the baseball. Spin rates, which are a good indicator of movement, are supposed to drop, contact from hitters should increase and the belief is that the change will lead to more runs and increased activity within each game.

The decision to address the problem midway through the year has been controversial and opinions across the game are split. The only consensus is that players, coaches, front-office executives and league staff can’t agree on anything. Some hitters embraced the change as overdue, others were more concerned about safety. Pitchers are equally divided.

It’s going to take time before anyone really knows the exact impact, but already there have been indications that baseball could look a lot different a few weeks down the road.

The spin rate on Gerrit Cole’s four-seam fastball fell from a season average of 2,549 rotations per minute to 2,347 during Wednesday’s start against the Blue Jays. The drop of almost 7.9 per cent is well above the standard in-season deviation of approximately 1.5. After the game, the Yankees right-hander complained about the weather, said it was difficult to grip the baseball and added everyone was “just trying to play by the rules.”

Elsewhere in the American League East, Boston’s Garrett Richards didn’t throw a single curveball during his last start, even though it was his self-professed best pitch in May. His teammate Eduardo Rodriguez experienced a drop of 196 r.p.m. on changeups. In Tampa Bay, Tyler Glasnow blamed a partially torn elbow ligament on having to change his grip because of decisions made by the commissioner’s office.

The impact on the Jays has been less apparent, and few players have felt comfortable enough to speak about the topic on the record. Since the league first warned of the looming crackdown through a widely leaked June 3 memo, the Jays’ numbers have remained relatively stable.

Spin rates on fastballs from Robbie Ray and Ross Stripling had marginal increases. Hyun-Jin Ryu and Steven Matz saw dips of 19 r.p.m. or fewer and their breaking balls were up by a similar amount, so not much difference there, either. Alek Manoah can’t really be factored in because he tossed just 9 1/3 innings before MLB’s decision.

In the bullpen, Tyler Chatwood was one of the pitchers named by Sports Illustrated as having allegedly texted former Angels visiting clubhouse attendant Brian Harkins about acquiring “sticky stuff” in 2018. Since June 3, Chatwood’s r.p.m. has dropped by 43 on fastballs, which includes a loss of 192 during Thursday’s appearance against the Yankees. His curveball fell by an average of 129 and it has been used just six times out of 86 pitches.

Jordan Romano also saw a dip of 160 r.p.m. on breaking balls over that same span, but it’s worth pointing out his slider was back to its normal range during Tuesday’s appearance against New York. The discrepancy can be found in his previous two outings, which included a stretch when he was dealing with forearm tightness. Rafael Dolis’ numbers were slightly up before he left Wednesday’s game with a strained finger.

Not much has changed for the Jays, but there has been less movement elsewhere. According to The Associated Press, fastball spin rates averaged 2,306 to 2,329 r.p.m. each week through June 5. The following week it dropped to 2,282, and the week after that 2,226.

Those numbers suggest offence should be up, and so far it has been. In April, the league’s batting average was .232, the lowest on record. In May, a .239 average was MLB’s lowest since 1968. In June, hitters are batting .247 and there have been similar upticks in both on-base and slugging.

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But that’s not unusual for this time of year. Historically, batting averages are lower during the coldest months and as spring turns to summer, offensive numbers tend to rise. In 2019, the last time MLB played a full season, the league average was .245 in April, .253 in May and .256 in June.

There are trends beyond spin rates and batting averages that should be monitored as well. The league’s strikeout percentage of 24.1 through June 3 has dropped to 23.2 over the last two weeks. The walk percentage has dropped from 8.9 per cent to 8.2, which seems at odds with the notion that pitchers need these substances to improve command.

All this data needs to be taken with a grain of salt because the sample sizes are small and, considering the crackdown has yet to begin, it’s possible some pitchers are still doctoring the ball. There is a lot we don’t know, but we at least have an idea of what to expect: more hits, fewer strikeouts and some pitchers who will be forced to completely change their approach.

MLB knew it had problems with the baseball and a lack of action within games. League officials are about to find out if addressing one issue solves the other as well. Most believe it will help, but it’s just too early to say for sure.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca