If the Blue Jays can’t win the arms race before the trade deadline, they’ll likely take a run at a big bat again

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This article was published 23/07/2021 (1580 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The pool of available players for Major League Baseball’s trade deadline next Friday is beginning to resemble last off-season’s free agency when there was an excess of impact hitters and not much in the way of quality starting pitching.

Almost every contending team is in the process of trying to upgrade its pitching staff before the deadline. The problem is there aren’t a lot of top pitchers up for grabs, and the asking prices on those who are appear to be astronomical. It’s a simple case of supply and demand. Too many teams want to add pitching and not enough are willing to trade it away.

The Blue Jays are one of those clubs looking to upgrade but, if they can’t add starting pitching at the level they’d like, they could go after an impact position player instead as they load up to take a run at either the American League East division title or one of the two wild-card spots.

It’s a similar situation to the one that played out last winter. After the Jays were eliminated in the wild-card series against Tampa Bay, the front office talked about the need to improve run prevention with better defence and pitching. Then, when the off-season hit and there were few impact pitchers available, they went out and signed outfielder George Springer and middle infielder Marcus Semien.

“We have to think about winning, is really what it all comes down to,” Jays general manager Ross Atkins said earlier this week. “It’s not just as simple as preventing more runs. If we can’t improve our team via run prevention, whether that’s pitching, defence or just complementary players, we’ll think about improving it from an offensive standpoint as well.”

Atkins has been making the media rounds in recent days, as GMs often do prior to the deadline. In almost every interview, he has received some form of a question on who’s available and what the Jays will do to upgrade their staff. Each time, Atkins has cautioned there aren’t a lot of starters on the market.

That could be posturing, but it would weird way to go about it. If the Jays are expecting to seriously engage a team regarding a specific pitcher, it doesn’t make much sense to publicly state there aren’t a lot of alternatives. All that’s going to do is drive up the cost.

One of the biggest issues is that there are too many teams on the bubble. The Nationals possess this year’s biggest trade chip in ace starter Max Scherzer, but they entered play Friday just six games back of the Mets for first place in the National League East. If they fall apart over the next week, Scherzer likely gets put on the block. If they tread water, he probably stays put. The Atlanta Braves were four back and the fate of Charlie Morton hangs in the balance of whether they stick with the status quo or decide to sell.

The Reds aren’t expected to trade Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray, two potential front-line pieces, because they started Friday 6 1/2 games back of Milwaukee for first in the NL Central and both starters have additional years of control.

Even clubs already out of it claim to be disinclined about making big moves. Twins right-hander Jose Berrios is under control through 2022 and executives from across the league remain split on whether he will get dealt. Minnesota reportedly has been asking for two top-100 prospects and a current pre-arbitration big-leaguer. That’s a non-starter for most teams.

Similar things could be said about the Rockies and their ace, German Marquez. Colorado doesn’t look like it’s going to be contending any time soon, but Marquez is under contract for the next three years so there’s no rush to send him packing. If another team wants that to change, it better come armed with a strong offer.

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“I think the market is not clearly defined yet,” said Atkins, whose team began Friday 8 1/2 games back of first in the AL East and five back of a wild-card spot. “I think there is still more to learn: teams, exactly what they’ll be doing, exactly who will be available and just how available they are. Prices really tend to take shape closer to the actual deadline. It feels like there are opportunities (at every position) but maybe a little bit less so in the starting pitching category.”

If the bigger-name starters don’t get moved, contenders will have to pick from mid-tier options. Texas’s Kyle Gibson (2.86 ERA) represents the top end of that market while other options include Minnesota’s Michael Pineda (3.93), Colorado’s Jon Gray (3.68), Pittsburgh’s Tyler Anderson (4.35) and the Chicago Cubs’ Zach Davies (4.35). They are pitchers who provide depth and protect against injuries but are unlikely to make a huge impact.

Some of the hitters available include Texas outfielder Joey Gallo, Cubs outfielder/corner infielder Kris Bryant, Pittsburgh second baseman Adam Frazier, Arizona infielder Eduardo Escobar and Colorado shortstop Trevor Story. Nelson Cruz, another big bat, was sent from Minnesota to Tampa Bay in exchange for a pair of prospects Thursday.

The Jays’ priority remains improving run prevention but, if the options aren’t to their liking, expect them to go for a big bat instead.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca