Etobicoke’s Joey Votto has never been hotter. And the Reds star’s Hall of Fame case has never been stronger

Opinion

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This article was published 12/08/2021 (1514 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

By age 37, most professional baseball players have already settled into retirement. The ones who remain are typically hanging onto the twilight of their careers and making plans for what comes next.

Not Joey Votto.

Votto — the six-time all-star, former National League most valuable player and one of the best ballplayers this country has ever produced — isn’t just playing out the string on a mega $225-million (U.S.) contract. He’s thriving and putting up some of the best numbers of his life.

The resurgence began around the all-star break, and ever since then Votto has been one of the league’s top performers. Since the all-star break, Votto has an MLB-best 14 homers to go along with a .351 average and .442 on-base percentage.

There was a stretch at the end of July when Votto homered in seven consecutive games, just the eighth player in MLB history to do so. After a pair of home runs on Wednesday, he also joined Hall of Famer Frank Robinson as the only Cincinnati Reds ever to go deep 14 times in a span of 20 games.

With almost seven weeks remaining in the regular season, Votto is two homers shy the 27 he hit in 2018 and 2019 combined. At 72 RBIs, he has an outside shot at matching the 114 he put up across those two seasons as well.

Votto’s putting up elite numbers at an age when a player’s performance typically falls off a cliff.

“(I’m) humbled, but also meeting expectations,” Votto told Cincinnati reporters after Wednesday’s game. “I’ve had high standards for my play. I don’t expect to get 4,000-plus hits, but I feel like there are other things I can do. I don’t want to take a back seat to many players … It’s certainly humbling, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.”

For comparison, consider the career of José Bautista, who was once lauded around these parts for his renowned fitness. If any power hitter was going to age gracefully, surely it would be the late bloomer who adopted sports science and treated his body like a temple. Well, by 36, Bautista was struggling through his worst season for the Jays. At 37, he bounced around among three teams. A year later, he was out of the league entirely.

Votto, who turns 38 on Sept. 10, isn’t going anywhere. He has two more years and $50 million remaining on a contract he signed in 2014. There’s a team option valued at $20 million for 2024, and if he keeps playing this well there’s a chance it will even get picked up. With numbers this good at 37, who’s to say he can’t keep producing until 40?

The product of Etobicoke has been playing this well from the day he stepped onto the field as a 23-year-old rookie in 2007. There were occasional dips in power, but overall he’s been as consistent a performer as anyone over the last decade and a half. This is a guy who led the NL in OBP seven times. With four RBIs on Wednesday, he moved past Pete Rose for the third-most in franchise history at 1,038. Only 52 players in baseball have ever drawn more walks than his 1,260.

Among Canadian position players, Votto and Hall of Famer Larry Walker are in a class by themselves. Votto sits second to Walker in slugging (.565 vs. .520), homers (383 vs. 320), hits (2,160 to 1,996) and RBIs (1,311 to 1,038). He’s first in OBP (.417 vs. .400), walks (1,260 vs. 913) and all-star appearances (six vs. five). Votto also ranks first in average, ahead of Tip O’Neill (.326 vs. .313).

“He’s one of the greatest players I’ve been privileged to suit up with, and fun to watch,” Reds starter Wade Miley said this week. “He just continues to push himself and I guess reopen the doors, man. It’s been incredible to watch how special of a baseball player he is.”

A future induction into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame is a lock, and he has a strong case for Cooperstown as well. As outlined this week in the Sporting News, Votto is one of just five first basemen in history with at least a .300 average, an OBP above .400 OBP and a slugging percentage over .500 in his career. Three of the names on that list — Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and Frank Thomas — are in the Hall of Fame. The other, former Colorado star Todd Helton, is currently on the ballot.

The traditional power numbers hurt Votto’s case. He ranks 62nd among first basemen in RBIs and 35th in home runs. There are a lot of names above him on those lists who didn’t enter the hall, but none were the analytics darling that Votto has turned out to be.

Hall of Fame historian Jay Jaffe created JAWS (Jaffe wins above replacement score) to evaluate a player’s worthiness for enshrinement by comparing him to other Hall of Famers at his position. Votto ranks 13th with a score of 55.4.

There are only three players ahead of him who aren’t in the hall. One is disgraced steroid user Rafael Palmeiro. The others are Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, both still playing. Eleven Hall of Fame first basemen have lower scores. Old-school voters might be turned off by the homers and RBIs, but the new school figures to focus more on the areas where Votto shines.

Votto’s had one heck of a career, but based on how well he has played so far this season it’s equally apparent that the former Etobicoke Ranger isn’t close to being done. Our country’s best is aging like fine wine, with no expiry date in sight.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca