The Jays are piling up wins and catching breaks that contenders need along the way

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This article was published 22/04/2022 (1297 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Blue Jays are off to a strong start and the most impressive part is that the success has come in the face of adversity, both in terms of scheduling and a roster that can’t stay healthy.

Charlie Montoyo’s squad extended its winning streak to three games on Friday night with a 4-3 victory over Justin Verlander’s Houston Astros. The Jays have yet to lose a series, and their 9-5 record is good enough for a one-game lead over the New York Yankees atop the American League East.

In 2021, the Jays didn’t pick up their third series victory until May. This season, they did it within two weeks despite a difficult schedule and the loss of Teoscar Hernández, Danny Jansen, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Nate Pearson to injuries. The start hasn’t been perfect, but considering the opponents were the Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Oakland A’s, Texas Rangers and now the Astros, it’s pretty darn good.

Last year, the Jays placed 33 players on the injured list, seventh-most in MLB. Per Spotrac, their 1,812 total missed days ranked ninth and the $28,385,949 (U.S.) paid out to players on the injured list was 11th. They’d like to see dips in each of those categories, but even if the numbers remain similar their fate could be determined by who hits the IL and for how long.

Jansen is expected to miss upwards of six weeks after he went down early in the year with a strained oblique. Hernández began a hitting progression on Friday and might end up being out for a third of that time with a similar but less severe strain. Both players have been missed, but the situation could have been much worse. There were a couple of early scares that reminded everyone involved how precarious the title of MLB front-runner can be.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. required a couple of stitches after getting spiked on the hand during a series in New York, but Jays officials later said if the impact had been a couple of centimetres in another direction it could have resulted in a broken bone or damaged ligament. A week later, George Springer was struck on the forearm by a 94-m.p.h. fastball. X-rays were negative after the scary incident and while he has since been limited to coming off the bench, the injury is considered minor. Another close call to a star player that the Jays somehow survived.

Every good team must overcome injuries on its way to contention. The Jays will be no exception, and while losing Hernández and Jansen in the same week was a difficult blow, Springer and Guerrero following suit would have been catastrophic. They remain the favourites in a difficult division after their strong opening run, but nothing in this sport is guaranteed.

The missing piece

The front office did an admirable job of replacing Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien and lefty Steven Matz. The trio of Kevin Gausman, Matt Chapman and Yusei Kikuchi was brought in for less money — and, in Chapman’s case, tradeable assets — to fill similar roles with comparable talent. The one guy the Jays didn’t replace was fourth outfielder/designated hitter Corey Dickerson, and so far it shows.

Hernández’s oblique injury exposed one of their biggest weaknesses: outfield depth. Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer both played big roles in Thursday’s victory. Tapia had a pair of hits and a stolen base while Zimmer hit the game-tying homer, but before that neither one had done much with the bat. Veteran Dexter Fowler, a late addition to camp, is still getting into game shape. There are options, just not appealing ones when they must be used for long stretches.

To be fair, Dickerson is off to a slow start in St. Louis and might not have been the answer, but the guy he was last year is the type of player the Jays are missing. After coming over from Miami, Dickerson hit a respectable .282 with a .779 OPS while offering a mix of contact and power. The Jays need to find another player like that, and it’s safe to assume this is one position they will attempt to upgrade this summer, especially with at-bats up for grabs at DH when the roster is completely healthy.

The rant

From this vantage point, incessant complaints about umpires often come across as low-hanging fruit. Teams rarely get screwed over as much as their players and fans claim, and often the bad calls balance out over the year. I’m not one to lobby for an automatic strike zone or robot umpires, but every now and then there’s a performance so atrocious that it causes me to think I probably should.

During a 7-5 loss to Oakland at the start of the week, home-plate umpire Jeff Nelson missed 28 calls. According to the useful Twitter account @Umpscorecards, Nelson’s accuracy for the game was 86 per cent, eight points lower than the league average with an estimated impact of 1.41 runs in Oakland’s favour. It was a horrendous performance and one that should be addressed by the league publicly, but of course never will be.

If Nelson’s name sounds familiar, think back to the controversial “strike” call against Ben Revere in Game 6 of the 2015 AL Championship Series. The one that was about a foot above the strike zone and turned what should have been a 3-and-1 advantage into a 2-and-2 count with the tying run on third. That was Nelson too. Seven years later and he’s still just as bad at his job.

Chill out on Chapman

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Chapman’s strong play this week, which includes a six-game hitting streak and Friday’s game-winning double, should alleviate any concerns about his perceived slow start, but anyone who was panicked in the first place has a short memory. Last year, there were a lot of early complaints about Semien, who hit .211 with a .658 on-base plus slugging percentage in April. The prized infielder didn’t take off until a May series against Oakland and all he ended up doing was finishing top three in voting for the MVP.

Chapman struggled in his first week, but his average was up to .271 with an .798 OPS that is just slightly below his career average. It won’t be long before Bo Bichette, who also got off to a slow start, follows a similar trajectory. He’s batting just .213, but has gone through cold stretches plenty of times before and always bounced back. For as long as they’re healthy, there should be zero concerns about either guy.

Quick hitters

An apology is owed to Zack Collins. When Jansen got hurt, I suggested in a column that the front office might have some regrets about trading away Reese McGuire to the White Sox. Since then, Collins has two homers and a pair of doubles. His performance isn’t sustainable, but who cares? He’s getting the job done when the Jays need him and that counts for something … Bichette became the fastest player in franchise history to register 300 hits. The 24-year-old required 246 games to do it, besting Guerrero (281), Vernon Wells (281) and Shannon Stewart (284) … The latest example of positive reports in spring training needing to be taken with a grain of salt is Ryu. In March, there were no shortage of Jays players and coaches boasting about his bullpens and predicting a bounceback season. A month later, Ryu had to be given an extra day of rest before his second start, experienced a drop in velocity and had to be placed on the IL afterward. Whether he’s really hurt or just needs to go away for a while to regroup still isn’t known.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca