Jays prospect Nate Pearson is running out of time to prove he’s a starting pitcher

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This article was published 04/05/2022 (1283 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

From the moment Nate Pearson joined the Blue Jays organization, he wanted to become a starting pitcher. After a five-year journey that has provided more lows than highs, the former top prospect appears to have one last shot to make it happen.

Pearson rejoined his teammates in Toronto over the weekend with his career at a crossroads. The 25-year-old is still in the process of returning from another setback, which has become all too common since he was taken in the first round of the 2017 MLB Draft.

Injuries have plagued Pearson seemingly forever, even dating back to his youth. As an amateur, he underwent surgery to repair an olecranon stress fracture in his right elbow, which is one reason the man with the 100-mph arm was available to the Jays at the 28th overall pick.

Pearson’s first year as a pro was derailed after a comebacker fractured his right forearm. Since then, there have been more elbow issues, a shoulder problem and a sports hernia that required surgery. Now he’s rehabbing again, this time after a bout of mononucleosis that has kept him out since the spring.

“It’s kind of like starting over, mono really put me down for a little while,” Pearson admitted. “I lost some weight, so it was all about getting my strength back. Once I was able to do that, I started the progression to build up as a starter and we’ll go from there.”

The continuous setbacks mean that despite having been in the system for almost five years, Pearson has barely pitched. Dating back to 2017, Pearson has tossed a grand total of 187 1/3 innings between the minors and majors. For comparison, Jose Berrios and Robbie Ray topped that figure last year alone.

Pearson is still too young and has too much talent to be written off quite yet, but if the product of Florida wants to become a starter, he’s running out of time to make it happen. He’s still at least a full year, likely two, from being able to handle a full workload and if the buildup doesn’t start happening soon, there is little reason to believe he’s ever going to get there.

It has been almost three years since Pearson logged 101 2/3 innings across three levels of the minors. At the time, he was projected for 130-140 innings the following season, with the reins being taken off completely the year after that. Injuries changed everything, and Pearson has been playing catch-up ever since.

For now, the Jays remain committed to bringing Pearson back as a starter. He threw a 28-pitch bullpen at Rogers Centre on Tuesday and is scheduled to return to the club’s minor league complex in the coming days before joining Triple-A Buffalo for a rehab assignment.

At this point, the Jays’ decision to keep Pearson in that role is more about keeping their options open than a steadfast belief he will become an ace. By stretching him out, the Jays increase their starting depth and they can always transition him to the bullpen during the second half as needed.

“To stretch him out as a starter, that’s the goal, then we’ll go from there,” Jays manager Charlie Montoyo said. “If he’s stretched out as a starter, and we need length in the bullpen, he could come up and throw out of the bullpen, because he’s done it before. But the goal is to stretch him out.”

What has been left unsaid by the Jays is that their patience will eventually run out. If Pearson doesn’t show an ability to get outs and stay healthy as a starter, there will be little motivation to go through the motions again next year. At some point, he will move to the pen and stay there.

That’s not the outcome Pearson wants. Everything about his arsenal and body type screams front-line starter. He has the required three-pitch mix and he’s never experienced trouble maintaining velocity — if anything, he throws harder the deeper he goes.

A 5.18 ERA at the big-league level might have caused some to question what all the hype was about, but those numbers came in such a small sample size they don’t matter. The Jays have never seen more than a glimpse of Pearson in top form and if that doesn’t change soon it would hardly be surprising if the club cuts its losses and focuses on one or two innings at a time, instead of expanded outings.

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“You just have to be patient,” Pearson said of his uncertain role. “There are going to be opportunities that arise, you never know what’s going to happen. You just have to be ready for any situation and that’s what I’m planning for. I’m just viewing it as, whenever I’m on that mound, I need to make the most of it.”

Label Pearson as a bust if you must. There is no shortage of people wanting to jump on that bandwagon, but don’t be entirely shocked if at some point he puts it all together, even if it’s not the way the Jays originally envisioned.

With a starting rotation that runs six pitchers deep, and a bullpen that is currently getting the job done, the Jays have the luxury of waiting to see what happens next. Once a push for the post-season begins in the second half there won’t be as much flexibility. Pearson likely will be needed in the bullpen, and if he doesn’t have some starter’s innings under his belt by then, he’s probably never going to get them.

The clock is ticking on Pearson’s starting career faster than ever before. He still has time to pursue his preferred role, but if there’s another setback later this season, the starting days will soon be over, and it will become bullpen or bust.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca