Gausman for Ray. Chapman for Semien. The exchange rate has been money for the Jays so far

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 09/05/2022 (1596 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Blue Jays found themselves in an enviable situation this off-season. They had an affordable young core, money to spend and prospects to trade, but the front office was also faced with some difficult decisions that were bound to shape the direction of the franchise.

The American League Cy Young Award winner was a pending free agent on a team that lacked front-line options. So too was a finalist for most valuable player and a fixture in the heart of a potent lineup. Further down, the departure of a back-end starter threatened to erode depth, and there weren’t a lot of great options for the bench.

After coming one win shy of forcing a play-in game for last year’s post-season, there was little doubt that the Jays had a bright future. Yet the only way these young stars would live up to the hype in the sport’s most difficult division was if they were surrounded by even more talent. That made this off-season particularly crucial not only for this season, but the next few.

The Jays hit the one-month mark with a 17-13 record, good enough for third place in the AL East. It’s far too early to know whether their off-season moves will pay off over the long haul, but where’s the fun in that? Here’s a look at how some of the Jays’ key off-season decisions have worked out so far:

Kevin Gausman

Six starts 3-1, 2.13 ERA, 38 innings, one walk, 46 strikeouts

The cost Signed with Jays for five years, $110 million (U.S.)

Robbie Ray

Six starts 2-3, 4.38 ERA, 37 IP, 13 BB, 31 K

The cost Signed with Mariners for five years, $115 million

Way too early analysis There aren’t too many Jays fans who want a do-over of this one. At the time of the deal, I wrote Gausman was the prudent choice on a long-term deal because he came with less risk than the occasionally erratic Ray. Turns out he has just as much upside, too, with a dominating opening month that rivals anyone else’s in the game. Gausman has more strikeouts and fewer walks in the same number of appearances … Outside of one bad start against the White Sox, Ray has been pretty good, but the lack of command should remain a concern and he tends to give up a lot of homers, something Gausman has yet to do. Gausman looked like the better signing before, and nothing that transpired over the last month has changed that.

Steven Matz

Six starts 3-2, 7.01 ERA, 25 2/3 IP, 8 BB, 30 K

The cost Signed with Cardinals for four years, $44 million

Yusei Kikuchi

Five starts 1-1, 4.35 ERA, 20 2/3 IP, 14 BB, 20 K

The cost Signed with Jays for three years, $36 million

Way too early analysis Matz was a solid contributor for the Jays, but the years and dollars he signed for in St. Louis seemed a bit excessive for a guy who has been up and down for most of his career. The roller-coaster has continued with three good starts and three bad ones that resulted in an ugly ERA. Hard pass on four seasons of that … Unfortunately for the Jays, the same could be said about Kikuchi. He has the stuff with a 95-plus-m.p.h. fastball, but at age 30 and four years into a big-league career he remains a project, and there are no guarantees he will ever figure it out. If forced to pick, I’m taking Kikuchi, but it’s entirely possible both clubs end up regretting these deals.

Marcus Semien

26 games .184 BA/.495 OPS/0 HR/22 K

The cost Signed with Rangers for seven years, $175 million

Matt Chapman

30 games .200 BA/.666 OPS/5 HR/33 K

The cost Signed with Jays for two years, $25 million after trade with A’s for RH Gunnar Hoglund, IF Kevin Smith, LH Kirby Snead and LH Zach Logue.

Way too early analysis Semien is off to an awful start, but if that sounds familiar it’s because he did the same thing a year ago. A disappointing April did little to take the shine away from Semien’s impressive run with the Jays, and it’s entirely possible the situation will repeat itself in Texas. Even if it does, a seven-year commitment never made sense for a team that needed to maintain long-term flexibility to lock up its young stars … Chapman, who had two years of arbitration remaining when he was acquired from Oakland, made much more sense and he still does, even after an underwhelming start. The 29-year-old was a defensive upgrade at third and possesses a lot of power, but it’s clear there will be long droughts with too many strikeouts. As a two-year fit, he makes sense. But he’s unlikely to stick around after free agency. The only piece the Jays might regret giving away is Hoglund, a top prospect still recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Randal Grichuk

26 games .294 BA/.808 OPS/4 HR/24 K

The cost Eating $9.7 million of the approximately $21 million owed over next two seasons.

Winnipeg Free Press | Newsletter

Jen Zoratti | Next

Wednesdays

What's next in arts, life and pop culture.

Sign up for Jen Zoratti | Next

Sign Up

I consent to the Terms and Conditions, Cookie and Privacy Policies.

I consent to CASL agreement.

Raimel Tapia

25 games .215/.666 OPS/1 HR/19 K

The cost $3.95 million

Way too early analysis Pick your poison. Grichuk is a starting outfielder on a bad team, while Tapia might not even be a reserve. Neither player has much upside; they just offer different skill sets. On paper, Tapia, with speed and a lefty bat, is a better fit than the redundant Grichuk, but he has looked overmatched at the plate. Consider this a wash for now, but if George Springer goes down with a long-term injury the Jays might end up regretting this one, despite Grichuk’s noticeable flaws.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca