Manitoba must address out-migration of youth

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 22/09/2022 (1170 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

There’s something about being young and wanting to explore the world — leaving your parents and friends behind and forging a new identity in another town, province, even country.

A new report from the Canada West Foundation titled “The Young are Restless” details the provincial differences in migration patterns between British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba for youths aged 15 to 34. A significant element is that the report considers the economic context behind the changing migration patterns.

For this province, there are some indications that while youth may leave, there are many reasons for them to stay and, for those who choose to depart, reasons for them to return and to raise their families.

Youth move to pursue opportunity – jobs and career prospects that can’t be found in their hometowns. They also move to where the cost of living is affordable, and that means where the cost of housing is maintainable. In both cases, Manitoba has much to offer. However, some changes can be made to increase the number of youth who choose to live and work in our province.

According to the analysis, the West has seen hundreds of thousands of people come and go, with Alberta and British Columbia normally the “big net gainers.” Manitoba and Saskatchewan have never made those same kinds of gains, and immigration has been used as a way to shore up population numbers and to keep the population growing.

However, what is surprising is that more recently, Alberta has experienced a net negative flow of young people, largely a result of the flagging fortunes of the oil and gas industry. Migration to B.C., on the other hand has been positive, with indications that some Prairie youth opted to head as far west as they could possibly go.

According to statistics for 2021 from the government of Manitoba, migration out of the province to B.C. totaled 4,437, with Alberta being the preferred destination for 4,130 Manitobans. By comparison, only 2,489 people moved to Ontario from this province.

According to the report, “Manitoba does not see swings in youth migration that Alberta and British Columbia do,” and our unemployment levels remain relatively stable. This typifies how political scientist Jared Wesley has summed up Manitoba’s political culture: steady and stable.

One factor that must change in Manitoba is the level of enrolment in post-secondary education (PSE). According to the report, the West as a whole is not producing enough PSE graduates to meet the needs of the economy, which means skilled talent educated in other provinces and countries has had to be imported.

This means two things: first, more must be done in Manitoba to ensure the skills required by industry are being matched by PSE institutions; and second, more must be done to ready students to enroll in PSE – be it technical colleges or universities.

That requires dedicated funding for high schools, particularly for members of marginalized communities who face barriers to enrolment, to ensure these students can participate fully in post-secondary education. Indigenous youth and new Canadians must be provided with additional resources to help them find success.

Manitoba’s unemployment rate of 3.5 per cent in July 2022 was the lowest recorded by Statistics Canada since its labour-force statistics series began in 1976. However, according to the Canada West report, our wages are quite low: a youth in Manitoba will on average “earn the second lowest wage in the country – fully $2.40 per hour less than in Ontario and $3 less than in Alberta and British Columbia.”

So, even if we do have jobs, the fact they jobs aren’t competitively waged may prompt our young people to look elsewhere.

The good news is that Manitoba and Winnipeg remain somewhat affordable in terms of housing, but that’s changing. Compared to other Prairie cities, if you’re working, rent here is reasonable, as is buying a home. But now that prices have started to drop in Alberta, we’re not looking as rosy as we once did. In fact, Edmonton’s average rent is just $6 a month more than Winnipeg’s. Calgary’s is only $56 a month more on average, yet the wages are higher in both cities.

Youth migration out of Manitoba has been a challenge for many years, but it does not have to be accepted as an inevitability. While our economy remains steady, more can be done to recruit youth to post-secondary institutions to train them for jobs in the future. This includes starting at the high school level, by ensuring all students have the opportunity to participate in post-secondary education.

And wages need to be competitive. We have one of the lowest minimum-wage levels in the country at just $13.50 an hour; labour groups have called for a minimum wage of $16.15 to meet basic needs. If we want our youth to stay in Manitoba, we have to pay them more.

Shannon Sampert is the former politics and perspectives editor at the Winnipeg Free Press and a communications consultant.

shannon@mediadiva.ca