Better ways needed to respond to protests

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 09/11/2022 (1365 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The extensive inquiry into use of the Emergencies Act to address the so-called “freedom convoy” protest in Ottawa is now well underway. There has been ample discussion of politics, and lots of finger-pointing.

But an important aspect of the inquiry is not necessarily assigning blame, but rather suggesting better ways and making improvements. In this regard, there are some important perspectives that relate to businesses and the vital nature of supply chains across the country, which have remained largely out of the spotlight. These deal both with the events leading up to the protest and the associated fallout.

In December 2021, major national organizations issued impassioned pleas to the governments of both Canada and the U.S. to delay implementation of vaccine mandates for all truckers crossing the Canada-U.S. border. These organizations included the Canadian Trucking Alliance, representing the industry nationally, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, an important business organization, and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Their statements are all a matter of record, raising concerns that supply chains were already stretched to the breaking point, and additional pressures created by reducing the number of truckers able to cross the border could impose further stresses, creating a looming crisis.

Rigorously imposing the vaccination mandate on truckers, at the same time, was identified as having little consequential benefit regarding COVID-19 and public health. These concerns were legitimate but were ignored by the federal government.

But importantly, as matters unfolded, all these organizations went on record to distance themselves from the so-called truckers’ protest, with several voicing strong concerns.

One possible improvement for governments is by responding when legitimate concerns are expressed, such as these. It would have been easy to say, “We acknowledge concerns about the trucker mandate, and will consider them further, but noting mandates are bilateral and changes require agreement from the U.S. too.”

This would have cost little, including regarding the status and positioning of the government, and by showing they were actually listening, could have helped take the wind out of the sails of protesters. Perceived government intransigence appears to have beeen a significant factor allowing the protest to fester and grow.

The federal government decided to dig in its heels and, as reported in the media, by late January had gone out of its way to double-down; this, as protesters already were forming up and heading to Ottawa. There was much advance notice of what was coming, so no surprise to anyone.

While the subsequent focus was on Ottawa, a key question is whether events there were actually so important. The answer, surprisingly, appears to be no.

Estimates are pretty rough, but the cost of about 23 days of protest in Ottawa is reasonably assumed to be about $80 million in economic losses. The real problems were the border-closing blockades, the most critical being the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor, Ont., which carries literally 25 per cent of trade between Canada and the U.S. and was blocked for six days.

In this case, again a rough estimate, a comparative reasonable cost is about $600 million. The border crossing at Emerson in Manitoba was blocked for about six days, with a reasonable estimate of about $200 million. The border crossing at Coutts, Alta., was longer, about 17 days, with a reasonable estimate also of about $200 million.

At Emerson, and ultimately at Coutts, protesters left voluntarily. The Emerson situation was particularly well handled, with, obviously, the lowest resulting policing cost, very unlike Ottawa. Some measured force was employed to quickly clear the Ambassador Bridge, but it’s important to note this occurred Feb. 13, the day before the Emergencies Act was invoked.

The public supported responses to clear such blockades, with Canadians understanding the importance of avoiding serious economic losses, resulting in layoffs and pain. While border blockades together dwarfed the impacts of events in Ottawa, these too paled in comparison to very high costs of the pipeline and rail blockade protests occurring just two years before in 2020. The latter involved 30-odd different sites over roughly a month, with economic losses of multiple billions suggested in media reports.

Ottawa was the overriding focus of federal actions. While it is true the protest was noisy and disruptive, it remained largely peaceful, with police reporting no significant riots, no major injuries and, most important, no deaths. A raid in Coutts did find a cache of weapons, but while rumours circulated in Ottawa, there are, so far, no confirmed police reports of finding loaded weapons.

Statements by the prime minister in 2020 suggested resolution of protests should come through dialogue. In 2022, early dialogue by the same government could have helped curtail expensive protests.

The public also understands the importance of avoiding economic losses, with associated impacts on Canadians. As such, this represents an important factor for governments to carefully monitor, but a crisis cannot be manufactured.

Protests will inevitably continue to occur. Improved responses are needed.

Robert Parsons teaches sustainability economics, mathematical methods and supply chain management at the I.H. Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba.