Cabinet shuffle could help Stefanson

Opinion

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This article was published 03/02/2023 (948 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The 2023 Manitoba election is scheduled to take place on Oct. 3. With the election looming, almost every decision made by Manitoba politicians is interpreted as some kind of pre-emptive strategic move.

The truth is, people who write and talk about politics in this province for a living, myself included, have probably become overly invested in every minute detail of government and politics, searching for some electoral significance in every measly scrap of news. Sometimes, for example, people retire because they want to retire, and that’s really the end of the story.

But Premier Heather Stefanson’s cabinet shuffle earlier this week is an exception. While Stefanson had little choice but to reshuffle, given that several ministers will not be running for re-election this year, she clearly used the occasion to devise a cabinet she can take with her into the coming campaign.

Three aspects of the shuffle are noteworthy:

First, Stefanson elevated two Winnipeg MLAs, who had long resided on the backbenches, to the cabinet. Both James Teitsma and Janice Morley-Lecomte represent suburban Winnipeg seats.

We know being in the cabinet can give candidates an electoral boost when they go up for re-election. Being in cabinet means more media coverage, and the sense that cabinet-appointed MLAs can do more to help their constituents when that help is needed.

Stefanson’s promotion of Teitsma and Morley-Lecomte acknowledges once again that elections are won and lost in Winnipeg’s suburban seats, which have switched back and forth between the PCs and the NDP. The results of the coming election in the Radisson and Seine River seats will likely reflect the overall performance of the PCs and the NDP. But if the results of these races are close, the premier will have provided a boost to her candidates.

Second, Stefanson dropped several ministers who will be retiring from cabinet. This makes sense, since there is little benefit to leaving people who will be shortly departing from politics. It is far better to assign responsibility and provide exposure to candidates who will be running for re-election.

But there were two exceptions to this: Cliff Cullen inherited the finance portfolio, and Eileen Clarke returned to Indigenous reconciliation.

Some critics argued Stefanson must be running out of people to promote, and so had little choice but to turn to two retiring MLAs. This might be true.

But Cullen, an experienced minister, will provide some stability to the finance portfolio leading into the election. And Clarke, Brian Pallister’s well-regarded former minister of Indigenous reconciliation, will ensure the government avoids stepping in any cow pies on this sensitive file between now and the election.

Finally, the most consequential changes to the cabinet were in comparably less important portfolios: Kevin Klein and Obby Khan, both sent to the legislature via recent byelections, made it into Stefanson’s cabinet. One hope in appointing them is surely that both rookie ministers will help to establish a younger and more dynamic view of the PC government.

After Pallister’s departure as leader of the PCs, it was hoped that his successor could provide a clean break from the past and lift the party’s sagging poll numbers. Stefanson has had some policy successes as premier, but despite this, it has become clear that her cautious approach has not succeeded in establishing the much-hoped-for break from Pallister’s time in office.

Accordingly, she hasn’t managed to move the needle on public support, with her party still badly trailing Wab Kinew’s NDP in the polls, especially in Winnipeg.

Both Klein and Khan, new faces in the government, provide an opportunity for the government to put forward a refreshed image and demonstrate that the party can successfully renew itself while in office.

Klein, in particular, has exhibited energy that many veterans in the PC caucus seem to lack — perhaps understandably, as they’re likely exhausted after seven often-difficult years in government.

Stefanson’s advisors will probably put these two rookie ministers in front of the television cameras as often as possible, with at least one likely to take on the role of attack dog against both Kinew and his candidates.

The elevation of both men to cabinet also provides a clue as to what may unfold after the coming election. It is unlikely Stefanson will stick around for long if she leads the PCs to an election loss, so the question of who will lead the Opposition against a Kinew government will quickly command attention.

Klein and Khan, if they are candidates in a party leadership race, will benefit from the increased profile and experience from their time in cabinet.

The polls are encouraging for the NDP, and they have been for some time. But Stefanson’s cabinet shuffle demonstrates both how quickly things can change in politics and how the incumbent premier has certain tools she can use to her own electoral advantage.

Royce Koop is a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba and academic director of the Centre for Social Science Research and Policy.