Provincial election, but national repercussions

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/05/2023 (898 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

My Alberta roots run deep. My father and brother still live there. My maternal grandfather was responsible for building many of the roads north of Edmonton in the ’30s and ’40s.

My dad’s grandparents’ homesteaded in northern Alberta, relying on the Manitoba Free Press for their crop forecasts. I attended the University of Alberta and Calgary and began my post-secondary journey at SAIT in broadcasting. It shouldn’t be surprising that I would be interested in the May election.

But this election is also important for the rest of Canada and for Manitoba and Saskatchewan — as part of the so-called “West” — as well. Whoever takes the helm of the province will drive the discourse on federalism for the foreseeable future.

UCP leader and premier Danielle Smith is up against Rachel Notley, the leader of the NDP, who held power for four years beginning in 2015, toppling a Progressive Conservative party that had ruled for the previous four decades.

Some saw that win as the result of a fragmentation of conservative voters who had two parties to vote for: the Progressive Conservatives and the upstart Wild Rose party. When those two parties merged again under the banner of the United Conservative Party in 2017 and with a new leader (Jason Kenney), it won a majority in 2019. Smith took over as leader in 2022.

Now, in 2023, polls are showing a remarkably close election between the two parties, with a statistical tie in the early days. The difference between forming government or opposition may come down to winning a couple of ridings and Calgary remains the main battleground.

Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson confirmed Tuesday we’re heading to the polls on Oct. 3 and for those of us watching Alberta’s election from the sidelines, some of the similarities between the two provinces are surprisingly familiar. The UCP’s March budget ramped up spending in health care, education, highways and dozens of other projects with operating costs climbing by $2.6 billion and capital costs in the tens of billions. A $1.22-billion funding deal (the bulk of which is split between the city of Calgary and the province) to build a new Flames arena in downtown Calgary was announced just before the writ was dropped. It won’t go through until after the election.

Manitoba Conservatives also loosened their purse strings in their last budget in early March hoping that after years of fiscal restraint, more money will mean votes at the ballot box. Nearly $2 billion in new spending was announced but instead of a new arena, it looks like we’re getting new hospital spending along with rural doctors.

It’s not just the Conservatives who seem to have a familiar election playbook. Alberta’s Notley is running on fixing health care after the devastating cuts created by the UCP. That seems to be a rallying cry for Manitoba’s Wab Kinew who has made health care a priority. Notley has also found support from thousands of public sector workers upset by UCP’s effort to cut back on their salaries. Early pre-election campaign ads from the NDP have demonstrated sympathy for provincial government workers who have been hurt by government restraint. It’s déjà vu all over again.

But is any of this really important? Alberta’s sheer economic mass means that regardless of who wins at the end of May, the next premier will have some clout in Ottawa. The economy continues to expand with oil prices moderating, and energy sector investment increasing while drilling activity shows considerable strength.

That also means the policy dimensions of both parties will shape conversations Alberta will have with Ottawa in the future. No doubt both Smith and Notley will continue to push the federal government on the inadequacy of support for health-care funding as well as other federally implemented but provincially delivered programs. Environmental and energy policies will also be controversial, regardless of who wins.

But a UCP win means that Justin Trudeau and Ottawa will have their hands full as Smith tries to reshape the dimensions of the role federalism plays on what provinces can and cannot do. Smith seems to have backed away from her plans to scrap the Canada Pension Plan for an Alberta Revenue Agency and to get rid of the RCMP for an Alberta Police Service.

But you can expect strong resistance to climate change and gun control legislation are two obvious places to start. With a strong electoral win, she may want to test her controversial Sovereignty Act. That legislation, passed at the end of December, sets out a confrontational approach with Trudeau’s government on a range of issues deemed to be overreach in provincial areas of responsibility. Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe seems ready to copy Alberta’s bill with his own Saskatchewan First Act that’s aimed at protecting his province’s natural resources.

The outcome will be decided May 29. The rest of Canada should be paying attention.

Shannon Sampert is a communications consultant, freelance editor for Policy Options and former politics and perspectives editor at the Free Press. She continues to teach part time at the University of Manitoba.

shannon@mediadiva.ca