A complicated election in Turkey

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 07/06/2023 (1171 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who won re-election on May 28 for a new five-year term, is a useful but difficult ally for Canada and the other western democracies. His nation of 85 million is a military and industrial great power in the Middle East region but he is not much interested in the secular ideals and liberal values that propelled Turkey’s modernization in the 20^th century.

Since his appointment as prime minister in 2003, Mr. Erdogan has found support among rural and small-town Turks who cling to Turkey’s Islamic traditions. Those conservative Turks resisted the introduction of western customs and values favoured by the urban middle classes of Istanbul, Ankara and other large cities. After 20 years in power, President Erdogan is well known to his people and to governments he deals with around the world.

As an admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr. Erdogan proved his usefulness last year when he persuaded Russia to lift its naval blockade of Ukrainian ports to allow export of the Ukrainian grain that provides the daily bread for Egypt and much of the Middle East region. Unlike the other members of the North Atlantic Alliance, Turkey has not cut trade with Russia on account of its war against Ukraine.

As a fierce enemy of Kurdish national movements in Turkey, Iran and Syria, Mr. Erdogan loudly objects to the Swedish government’s tolerance of activists among Kurds who have taken refuge in Sweden. He threatens to veto Sweden’s admission to NATO, though the addition of Sweden to the alliance would help NATO to resist Russian threats to the Baltic states.

Canada should not be intimidated by Mr. Erdogan’s anger. He is angry most of the time. Even in his election victory celebration, when he was trying to radiate goodwill and friendliness toward all his people, he could not resist launching into a tirade against his defeated challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, accusing him, without evidence, of siding with terrorists. Mr. Erdogan finds terrorists on all sides, where others see only law-abiding political opponents of the president.

Canada should encourage the other industrial democracies to prepare an economic rescue plan for Turkey. President Erdogan is pursuing a ruinous policy of low interest rates, thereby fanning the inflation that has already robbed the Turkish lira of much of its value. He apparently thinks this is wise policy and he means to pursue it in defiance of all economic logic. Rather than let Turkey slide deeper under Russian influence, the western democracies should be ready with solutions when the social and industrial consequences of Turkey’s inflation become intolerable.

Mr. Erdogan has shown that his close ties to Russian President Putin can serve wider interests like keeping shipping lanes open for Ukraine. Canada should accept his refusal to march in step with the rest of NATO. The alliance may need his Russian connections when the Russians start to look for a way of abandoning their war against Ukraine.

There is no need, however, to pander to his intolerance of opposition, his brutal imprisonment of critics, his interference with the judiciary and his imposition of his own unorthodox theories of economic policy. Canada should defend the freedom of Turkish expatriates in Canada to speak out against Turkish government policy, despite Mr. Erdogan’s annoyance.

Turkey has yet to find a path forward that enjoys wide support from both Islamists and secularists, traditionalists and modernizers. This election might have ended Mr. Erdogan’s rule, but it was never going to unite Turks around a single conception of their country’s way forward.