NDP needs new approach

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/06/2023 (1021 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

On their face, and to the untrained eye, the numbers make no sense at all.

How can a government that most Manitobans feel has bungled every major file within its jurisdiction have a growing shot at being re-elected? How can an opposition party that many felt was cruising to a landslide victory be facing the rising possibility of yet another four years on the opposition benches?

Those are questions followers of Manitoba politics might be asking themselves after the release of two public opinion polls in the past two weeks.

On June 13, the Angus Reid Institute published the results of a poll that found that Manitoba’s New Democrats were holding a 44-39 provincewide lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives, and a big 54-29 lead in Winnipeg.

The poll also found that a large majority of respondents have an unfavourable opinion of the government’s performance on 13 different issues. Seventy-nine per cent disapproved of the government’s handling of “cost of living/inflation,” while a staggering 81 per cent gave the government’s management of health care a failing grade.

Finally, the poll found that just 25 per cent of respondents have a favourable opinion of Premier Heather Stefanson, and only 38 per cent view NDP leader Wab Kinew favourably. Of even greater significance, just 78 per cent of respondents who voted for NDP candidates in the 2019 provincial election have a favourable opinion of Kinew.

On June 20, Probe Research revealed the results of its latest survey of Manitobans’ voting intentions. That poll found that the Tories and NDP are tied at 41 per cent provincewide, and the NDP’s lead in Winnipeg has shrunk from a 55-27 margin last December to 48-32.

Probe also found that support among respondents aged 18 to 34 has sagged since December from a 50-31 NDP lead to a 42-35 margin. Support among respondents aged 35 to 54 has shifted from a massive 48-35 NDP lead to just a 44-43 NDP margin — a statistical tie. Finally, support among respondents aged 55 and up has swung from a 41-39 NDP lead to 43-39 Tory lead in that crucial voter segment.

All those numbers reveal the current situation, but they don’t explain why they have been moving in the Tories’ favour over the past six months.

The answer begins with recognizing that this election was never going to be an NDP coronation. As the election drew nearer, it was inevitable that voters would begin to critically assess whether an NDP government would be an improvement over the current Tory government.

It’s not an easy call. Manitobans may have a poor opinion of the way Team Stefanson has managed many of its files, but the tightening poll numbers suggest a growing number of voters suspect an NDP government could be even worse. That skepticism is likely fuelled by the fact many still recall the mismanagement they witnessed under the previous NDP government.

Voters remember the worst-in-nation health-care wait times and standardized test results. They wonder if the current crop of NDP candidates could do better than the previous NDP team, or even better than the current Tory lineup.

Another factor is Kinew’s popularity problem. Stefanson is wildly unpopular, but 62 per cent of voters — including 22 per cent of NDP supporters — have an unfavourable opinion of Kinew. He’s less popular than his party, and that’s costing votes.

How does the NDP respond to this worsening situation?

Step one would be accepting that this campaign won’t be the easy win many expected. Step two is dumping the low-risk front-runner campaign strategy, and campaigning as if the contest is as close as the numbers suggest. That includes investing more time at voters’ doors, and strengthening campaign infrastructure to ensure supporters are identified and motivated to vote.

Step three is working harder to convince more Manitobans that Kinew can be trusted to carry out the duties of premier with vision, competence and compassion. Finally, they must persuade voters that their candidates possess the skills, experience and commitment to do a better job than the Tories have done.

In summary, the NDP needs to stop playing it safe, and start campaigning as if their jobs depend on the election’s outcome.

Because they actually do.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. deverynrossletters@gmail.com Twitter: @deverynross