Manitoba must go greener, faster

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 26/07/2023 (971 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A DANGEROUS illusion is being presented in Manitoba by our Progressive Conservative government. The PCs are deceptively disguising their miniscule climate-change efforts as substantial and impressive.

Wildfires are rampant across Canada. Record-breaking temperatures abound worldwide. Glaciers and sea ice are rapidly melting. Scientific research, UN IPCC reports, and empirical evidence are telling us that we’re racing toward a climate catastrophe and that, by about 2050, we must completely stop producing greenhouse gases (GHGs). In response, our provincial government presents itself as a proactive climate warrior, regularly declaring that it’s making Manitoba the “cleanest, greenest and most climate resilient province,” and then proceeds to do very little. Our government’s policies fall shockingly short of what’s urgently needed. Here are some examples.

Fossil fuels used to power vehicles are a major source of Manitoba’s GHG emissions. The PC government’s solution involves highlighting the installation of a few electric-vehicle (EV) charging stations: one here; a couple more there, enough to generate news stories. However, that’s not at all close to what’s needed to encourage and support a mass conversion of Manitobans to EVs. According to recent Statistics Canada and Natural Resources Canada data, Manitoba is one of two provinces with the fewest public EV charging-station ports per capita. Furthermore, unlike the federal government and six other provinces, Manitoba doesn’t offer financial incentives to purchase EVs.

The use of natural gas for heating is also a major source of GHGs. Solving that problem requires a huge effort. Manitoba needs an ambitious program to convert existing buildings to alternatives like ground-source heat pumps. Instead, the government created an organization called Efficiency Manitoba. Sounds interesting, but look further and see that its goal is to reduce natural gas consumption by 0.75 per cent annually (i.e., less than one per cent per year). By 2050, that would yield about a 20 per cent reduction, shockingly short of the needed 100 per cent.

An easier target for the government would be to ensure all future houses use minimal amounts of energy. That could have been done by adopting new, energy-efficient building standards. Instead, despite its “cleanest, greenest” pledge, Manitoba announced it will adopt the least energy-efficient version of the new standards. Again, it seems that doing the least is deemed the best by the PCs.

Of course, the overall and crucial goal must be to rapidly reduce and then entirely eliminate Manitoba’s GHG emissions. The IPCC declaration earlier this year was that everyone must reduce their annual GHG emissions to 43 per cent below 2019 levels by 2030 and to net zero by about 2050. Manitoba produced about 22 megatonnes (millions of tonnes) of GHGs in 2019. That means we should be targeting 12.5 megatonnes in 2030 and zero in 2050. Remember that these are annual amounts — the amount of GHGs produced every year.

Now consider Manitoba’s official plan. Manitoba’s goal for 2023 through 2027 is a cumulative reduction of 5.6 megatonnes. At first glance, a reduction of 5.6 megatonnes over five years might seem decent. That’s an illusion. The reality is that 5.6 megatonnes is the five-year cumulative reduction—the sum of all the individual yearly reductions. Those earlier GHG numbers were annual amounts. To achieve a cumulative reduction of 5.6 megatonnes, Manitoba needs only a decrease of about 0.37 megatonnes more every year. By the fifth year, the province’s annual emissions would be reduced by about 1.9 megatonnes. That’s not nearly as impressive as 5.6 megatonnes and would make poor political headlines.

Worse than that, if Manitoba only manages a reduction of 0.37 megatonnes each year, we won’t reach the IPCC’s 2030 target until 2043 and zero emissions until 2077, over two decades too late. During that time, we could generate 300 megatonnes (that’s 300 million tonnes or 300 billion kilograms) of greenhouse gases more than the IPCC says can be tolerated. Remember that most greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for centuries, continuing to heat the planet. That’s not information the government likes to share.

Manitoba’s PCs declare we’ll be the “cleanest, greenest and most climate resilient province.” However, anyone paying attention will see that’s just government greenwashing. They’re trying to make very little climate-change activity seem like a lot.

It’s as if we’re driving on a highway, trying to escape a wildfire and frantically urging the PC government driver to go faster. The driver assures us we’re already speeding, pointing at the speedometer as proof. However, the speedometer’s been rigged. We’re actually moving very slowly.

An illusion created by news releases, “efficiency” organizations, and dodgy GHG numbers won’t save us from actual climate-change heat. Manitoba needs to move faster.

Much faster.

Calvin Brown writes from his home in the R.M. of St. Andrews.