Manitoba Liberals have hard road ahead

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 29/07/2023 (798 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Liberal Party was once a political force in Manitoba, being part of coalition governments during the 1940s and the 1950s. Beginning in the late 1960s, however, the party went into a slow, steady decline which left it ( except for one brief period) stuck in distant third place among competitive parties.

In the 14 elections held since 1969, the Liberals have only twice — under leader Sharon Carstairs in 1988 and 1990 — obtained more than 25 per cent of the popular vote provincewide. In seven elections the party obtained between 12 and 14 per cent of the popular vote. Twice the party’s vote fell below 10 per cent.

Low voter support has meant that nine times out of 14 elections, the party failed to elect four or more MLAs, the number required to achieve official recognition in the legislature and the perks that status brings. In short, for more than five decades, the Liberals have not been a real contender for power in Manitoba.

There are multiple, reinforcing factors, both historical and contemporary, which have contributed to this dismal record. Only a brief sentence or two about each of these factors is possible in the space available here.

In terms of ideas, there has always been tension within the party between business-oriented members committed to limited government and social reformers who favour more active governments committed to the creation of economic and social opportunities. This ideological clash has often mirrored a rural-versus-urban divide.

The image of the leader and the party often become fused in the minds of voters. Since 1969, the Liberals have had no fewer than 17 full or interim leaders. This has prevented the party from presenting clear and consistent policy messages. In contrast, there have been only five leaders of the NDP and 10 for the PCs.

After the breakthrough NDP victory in 1969, party competition became more polarized, with the Liberals increasingly crowded out by left-versus-right clashes. The party lost further voter support after 1988 when Gary Doer became NDP leader and moved his party to the moderate middle of the political spectrum.

The relationship between the provincial and federal wings of the Liberal party has been a mixed blessing. When the national party was in power it could prop up the provincial wing, but unpopular leaders and/or policies nationally could be a drag on the provincial party.

The simple plurality electoral system, which converts votes cast into seats, tends to “under reward” a party like the Liberals, which has territorially dispersed, rather than concentrated, voter support across the province.

The Liberals may have also been hurt by “strategic voting” which supposedly happens when individuals vote for other than their first choice in the hope of getting rid of an unpopular government. This may have occurred in 2016 when the PCs ousted the NDP. Empirical studies suggest, however, that the amount of strategic voting tends to be overstated.

Lack of success over a long period makes it harder to maintain constituency associations, recruit candidates and raise money. Reliance on “star” candidates in select constituencies as a way to build momentum does not work as well in a polarized political environment. Recent changes to campaign finance laws have also handicapped the party.

Communication in many channels has become central to partisan competition. Without the four seats required to qualify for recognition in the legislature, the Liberals have limited financial and staffing resources, along with limited procedural opportunities to raise their profile in media coverage. Lacking funds for paid advertising, Liberal leaders have sought to generate media coverage through various messaging activities, not always successfully.

Campaigns matter in terms of determining election outcomes. Inexperienced leaders, less money and fewer political staff than the main parties put the Liberals at a serious disadvantage. An upswing in Liberal support might have been possible in the 2016 election, but the party ran a weak campaign with candidates being disqualified, wonky policy ideas and gaffes by the leader. The party had a much better performance in the 2019 election and probably deserved a better fate than the disappointing three seats it obtained.

A June poll published in this paper put Liberal support at 10 per cent and, ominously, only 40 percent of respondents who voted for the party in 2019 indicated they would stick with that choice in the October 2023 election.

The multiple factors described above are mutually reinforcing, which means there is no easy gimmick to propel the Liberals out of third place. That outcome will require practical moderate policies, a leader who is a skilled communicator, hard work, perseverance — and some political luck.

Paul G.Thomas is Professor Emeritus of Political Studies at the University of Manitoba.