A huge political dice-roll

Opinion

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This article was published 19/08/2023 (749 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

“Kinew had a record for assaulting a taxi driver. He faced charges of domestic assault in 2003 and one count of theft under $5,000 in 2006, but those charges were stayed.” — Winnipeg Free Press, Aug. 17

Here in Manitoba’s newspaper of record, I want it to be known that in the middle of a Manitoba provincial election campaign in 2023, the leader of a party I have never voted for shocked me.

I knew the basic headlines about his police record, listed at the top of this column. But I did not know that he was a high stakes political gambler.

I never expected him to discuss his encounters with the Criminal Code only weeks before a provincial election.

But this week at Canadian Mennonite University in Winnipeg, in a speech that was very well received by 250 people, he discussed his personal past, which included addiction and violent crime. And then he said these words, “My political opponents think I’m running from my past, but actually my past is the reason I’m running.”

My astonishment with Manitoba NDP Leader Wab Kinew’s event is grounded in personal experience.

Over the years, Progressive Conservatives and Liberals have, in various parts of the country, encouraged me to run for them provincially and federally. Every vetting process included the question, “Does Adler have a criminal record?” The answer to that question has always been in the negative.

But my view of the issue has never changed. I have always thought that a criminal record, especially one that included violence, was a Rock-of-Gibraltar-sized negative for any candidate.

I never imagined living in a society where a political candidate, especially one running for the highest possible provincial office, would discuss his past the way Kinew did this week.

He told the gathering why he was motivated to go public. “My political opponents are playing politics with crime” said Kinew. Nobody doubts that the PCs are using crime as an issue. They would be doing that regardless of whether they were in government or opposition.

Conservatives federally and provincially always talk a good game about law and order because the public generally sees Conservatives as a party that favours punishment, while they tend to view left-of-centre parties as furnishing excuses for criminals.

But this week, Kinew did not pull a punch. He said the only reason the Conservatives were emphasizing crime was to demonize him. “It’s not about crime, it’s about me” he said.

Wab Kinew may be telling the whole truth. As a political matter in this campaign, when the Tories are talking crime, it may indeed be a way to target him, without mentioning his name.

While the Conservatives were not subtle four years ago in discussing Kinew’s past, they have for the most part avoided the issue this time around. A PC candidate in Fort Rouge, Rejeanne Caron, is being direct in her approach, telling voters that Kinew is a risky choice, strongly suggesting his past would prevent a Kinew government from dealing effectively with crime.

Provincially, the campaign has, for the most part, avoided Wab Kinew’s historic link to law and order.

But if the PCs were going to avoid making it the ballot issue, they almost certainly did not think Kinew would be doing it for them. This week, the fondest hope for any PC strategist was realized. Kinew put himself, his past and his character on the ballot.

If he wins the Oct. 3 vote, Kinew will go down in history as a remarkably successful political gambler.

But if the PCs prevail, and win another mandate, Kinew will be viewed as a reckless politician who took a baseball bat to a healthy lead and destroyed it by discussing his violent past.

It’s possible Kinew doesn’t see his remarks as politically hazardous. Recent polling shows him with a double-digit lead in Winnipeg, which is where all provincial elections are decided. Maybe the NDP leader feels victory is in the bag.

But to me, the jury is out. If I were advising a political leader with his troubled personal past, it’s something I might discuss publicly two years before a vote, but not two months — not now.

Let it be said here that Kinew has fessed up to his past addiction and his past criminal behaviour.

It remains to be seen whether the voters are sufficiently impressed to vote for a party led by Canada’s highest profile political gambler.

Charles Adler is a longtime political commenter and podcaster.

charles@charlesadler.com