Canada-India dispute tests relations

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 12/10/2023 (723 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

IT was an accusation that sent tremors through Western capitals. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told Parliament on Sept. 18 that Canada’s intelligence agencies had “credible allegations” that India’s government orchestrated the June murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader living in Surrey, B.C.

If true, the assassination of a Canadian citizen by foreign agents on Canadian soil represents a grave violation of Canada’s sovereignty. It would also call into question the true nature of India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The issue of Sikh extremism has often marred relations between Ottawa and New Delhi. Among the 770,000 Sikhs living in Canada, a small but vocal minority seek the creation of the independent state of Khalistan, carved out of India’s Punjab region. At times they have used violence to highlight their cause.

The 1985 bombing of Air India Flight 182 by Sikh extremists after it departed Montreal’s airport remains the worst terrorist attack in Canadian history, killing all 329 people on board. Canadian politicians of various stripes have also attended pro-Khalistan rallies over the years in an effort to court the influential Sikh diaspora, causing India’s government to accuse Ottawa of offering safe haven to terrorists.

But Trudeau’s bombshell allegation — which reporting by CBC says is based on intercepted communications between Indian officials — has dragged Canada-India relations to their nadir.

Both countries have expelled each other’s diplomats and personnel at Canada’s embassy in New Delhi have received threats on social media. Anti-India protests have taken place in cities across Canada.

The situation has also sunk a free trade deal being discussed by the two countries. Some estimates suggest it could have added upwards of US$5.9 billion to Canada’s GDP annually by 2035.

India has rebuffed the allegations, demanding Ottawa provide specific evidence for its claims, which it has so far refused. Many voices within Canada have called on the Trudeau government to do the same. Some conservative critics have even gone so far as to imply that the prime minister’s statement that ignited the political firestorm was cynically timed to distract from the Liberals’ tanking poll numbers.

Indeed, the very public nature of Trudeau’s accusations contrasts sharply with his government’s obfuscation tactics earlier this year around leaked intelligence reports detailing Chinese interference in Canadian elections dating back to 2019. But that’s not the only difference.

Compared to the outrage Canada’s allies directed toward Beijing for trying to undermine Canadian democracy, they have refrained from offering the same full-throated support when it comes to India, leaving Canada somewhat isolated.

A report by the Washington Post says that prior to Trudeau going public with the allegations in mid-September, Ottawa tried for weeks to gather support from its Western allies to publicly condemn India — to no avail. After the U.S. issued a cautious reaction when news of the allegations broke, American Secretary of State Antony Blinken later said on Sept. 22 that Washington has been “coordinating” with Ottawa and wants “to see accountability” on the issue by seeing India participate in an investigation.

And yet, even if the allegations are proven true, it’s hard to see India paying too steep of a price for its transgressions.

One-by-one, Western leaders have come to view what is now the world’s most populous nation as a linchpin in their plans to contain the rise of a more belligerent China. Indeed, most Western countries have bet big on deepening relations with India as something of a panacea to issues ranging from diversifying supply chains and finding a bountiful source of skilled immigration, to generating new opportunities for foreign investment and upholding security in the Indo-Pacific.

This all rests on the prevailing narrative that the world’s largest democracy holds shared values with the West. However, Modi’s Hindu nationalist government — almost assured of winning re-election next year — has been unapologetic about its discriminatory, authoritarian populist agenda. The extraterritorial killing of a dissident abroad would also seemingly place India among the ranks of autocracies like Russia and Saudi Arabia.

As some experts have pointed out, India is a similar place in its development arc that China was in the mid-2010s. The idea then was that economic integration and multilateral engagement would lead China toward becoming a more benevolent state. That turned out to be a false hope.

Is the West about to, once again, go all-in on a country that may share some of its interests, but not its values? If so, Canada won’t be the last liberal democracy pushed around by India in its pursuit of superpower status.

Kyle Hiebert is a Winnipeg-based researcher and analyst and former deputy editor of the Africa Conflict Monitor.