The environment is bigger than governments

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 14/11/2023 (670 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

To solve the climate crisis — you know, the one that saw out-of-control fires burning this past summer and record-shattering heat waves around the globe — we’re going to need a lot more than meaningless targets and nationwide blustering about a carbon tax. Yet Canadians would be justified in thinking politicians don’t have much else on offer.

It’s embarrassing, really. And I’m talking about myself, specifically.

Back in 2017, as the newly sworn-in minister of sustainable development, I was handed a draft copy of a climate and green plan with a clear mandate: curb greenhouse-gas emissions by approximately 2.5 megatonnes over a five-year period and sell a $25-per-tonne carbon tax to the public writ large. I blanched, but only for a second when I thought about my reception among those adamantly opposed to a carbon tax (of which there were many). I otherwise believed the Manitoba approach to be reasonable.

The plan also included a biodiesel mandate, efficiency activities to curb roughly 340,000 tonnes of GHG emission from home heating, the decarbonization of Winnipeg Transit to reduce another 50,000 tonnes, sustainable agricultural practices, and the displacement of propane heating in Churchill, to name a few.

Yet in the days following that unveiling, the federal government rejected our schedule of holding the carbon tax at $25 per tonne for five years, insisting it rise by $10 per tonne per year.

A showdown of sorts ensued. Courts were involved. Tempers flared, etc.

In the end, the feds won, and Manitoba became a recipient of the ‘backstop’ rising carbon tax, now at $50 per tonne. Yet even with that escalating tax, the goal of achieving a 2.5-megatonne reduction in Manitoba was unrealized, and many of our other climate initiatives were left undone.

Having said that, well-deserved accolades go to Manitoba’s expert advisory commission and everyone on the frontlines of fighting climate change for achieving some emission reductions (about 1.5 megatonnes in the last few years) amid government distractions over the carbon tax. They also phased out the last remaining coal unit, ramped up biodiesel usage, rolled out heavy-truck retrofits, and many other worthwhile steps in reducing our footprint.

So where does the climate fight go from here?

If projections are to be believed and the Trudeau government holds, the carbon tax is scheduled to rise to $170 per tonne by 2030 as a main initiative in reducing emissions by 40 per cent below 2005 levels. The new NDP government vaguely committed to the same goal provincially, meaning a reduction of approximately nine megatonnes and bringing Manitoba’s annual emissions profile down to 11 megatonnes by 2030.

Of course, all this comes with a big political asterisk.

As we’ve seen with the latest brouhaha regarding carbon tax carve-outs for heating oil — citing affordability as a reason for a three-year tax pause to a few lucky voters — Trudeau has now lost any remaining allyship with premiers across the country and saw an even greater erosion of his climate credibility among Canadians. No one believes a carbon tax will reduce emissions as originally projected and it has become more a vote-getting scheme than anything.

Confirming as much was a bombshell report that dropped last week from the federal environment commissioner, detailing significant shortfalls with the national climate plan and its ability to meet targets. It also noted a lack of transparency regarding federal models and showed Canada as the worst among G7 countries.

In light of all this, Manitoba’s newly minted NDP Premier Wab Kinew is seemingly following the federal NDP in abandoning the Liberal government’s climate plan by musing out loud about the efficacy of having any carbon tax at all.

“We’ve now been living with if for about half a decade now — what has it done for emissions?” he asked rhetorically during a first minister’s meeting in Halifax, and then saying the carbon tax was no “silver bullet.”

The Conservatives, my former teammates and now the official opposition, were quick to call Kinew’s position a flip-flop, which it is if you check the official record. But really the burning accusation should be replaced with a question: how then is Manitoba going to achieve a nine-megatonne GHG emission reduction by 2030?

Sure, the recent $475-million boost to Manitoba’s clean electricity grid is a good step in building a low-carbon future. As would be dusting off that 2017 climate and green plan and completing the multiple initiatives proposed by the expert advisory commission. Or coming up with new modelling and annual reporting to show the pathway toward this goal.

In any case, fighting climate change is complex and extends beyond a four-year electoral cycle. I truly hope our new premier doesn’t find himself in crowded company of other politicians who’ve failed to meet their climate targets, including his mentor and former premier Gary Doer, who once famously promised to reduce emissions and then dared the public to defeat him if he missed his target by saying, “If we don’t achieve it, the ultimate penalty in 2011 will be defeating the government.”

History tells us that Doer’s broken promise didn’t upend the NDP government back then, but in the fight against climate change, isn’t there much more at stake than just winning the next election?

Rochelle Squires is a recovering politician after serving seven and a half years in the Manitoba Legislature. She is a political and social commentator and her column appears Tuesdays. rochelle@rochellesquires.ca