Stick to science, not fiction

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 16/11/2023 (667 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Few issues are more polarizing and none more important than climate and energy policy. Getting the science right matters. Unfortunately, many Conservative politicians prey upon science illiteracy to sell false claims about renewable energy. The most recent example is Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe’s absurd statement that heat pumps don’t work on the prairies. Instead, he says, we should abandon carbon tax for all home heating fuels. Burn, baby, burn.

What rubbish. Heat pumps are a key tool in the policy toolbox to wean ourselves from fossil fuels. Ground source (geothermal) heat pumps, with cheap auxiliary systems for occasional ultracold days, work just fine in frigid temperatures.

It gets worse when people who should know better side with the politicians speaking nonsense. I’m looking at you, Premier Wab Kinew.

First it was the gas tax holiday. One hoped this was simple electioneering to take a wedge issue away from the PCs, while still being committed to a clean energy transition. But red flags went up when Mr. Kinew argued Manitobans should get a carbon tax carveout on natural gas when others get a break on heating oil. This is absurd on its face. According to Manitoba Hydro, the average carbon tax for a family heating with natural gas is $275 bucks, compared to the federal carbon tax rebate of over $800 for that same family.

Is Kinew’s government serious about climate and the economy?

Siding with Moe, Smith and Poilievre makes it worse. It undermines a central plank of federal climate change policy (truth be told Mr. Trudeau’s blundering isn’t helping). And it gives Smith and Moe licence to jack up greenhouse gas emissions from their tarsands. The result? Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction policy goes up in thick, black smoke. Those two provinces with one-seventh of Canada’s population account for nearly half of our emissions.

The need for politicians to seek out the guidance of experts in science and policy grows. Why? Because the world is awash in disinformation. Is it any surprise that Big Oil & Gas hired the same PR firms as Big Tobacco? Their job is to stall the shift to renewables, hence a tidal wave of misinformation about heat pumps and other sources of clean energy.

Politicians need expert guidance on major policy issues. When Kinew floated the idea of hydrogen production using ‘surplus’ hydro, that brought back memories of former premier Brian Pallister and his seat-of-the-pants decision making. “We’ll send the teachers to North Dakota for their COVID vaccines!”

There is no hydro surplus.

We export what we do not use for domestic consumption to Saskatchewan and south of the border. What is not under contract is sold on the spot market and too unreliable for hydrogen production. As the export contracts expire, that ‘surplus’ and more will be needed to meet growing domestic demand. Hydro power is expensive to build out, and Manitoba has the debt to prove it. Solar is now the cheapest form of energy on the planet, which is why major green hydrogen production facilities being built in Quebec and Australia rely on solar and wind.

We’ve seen premiers Moe, Smith and Stefanson float the idea of a new fossil fuel pipeline(s) to a new port on Hudson Bay, another pipe dream. With the International Energy Agency now forecasting declining demand for fossil fuels by the end of this decade, any new gas or oil pipeline is headed for the scrap heap.

What does make sense?

With long summer days and abundant solar energy, building a hydrogen production facility at Churchill where you can ship during the summer ice-free season makes perfect sense.

It’s early days for the new government but Kinew has already given Manitobans pause for concern with his election promises and careless rhetoric. It looks like his government doesn’t have a consistent, comprehensive plan going forward and is just making it up on the fly.

That will not do.

It’s time to assemble a blue-ribbon team of experts on science and policy to build that plan.

Given Manitoba Hydro’s risible Integrated Resource Plan and Energy Roadmap, one must look elsewhere. A more credible plan for our energy transition was offered by Manitoba’s Climate Action Team. That would be a good place to seek expert advice, as well as the Climate Change Connection.

Why is this important? It’s not just the planet at stake. For those who don’t care about the future of humanity, it’s our economy too. Nothing is more important to Manitoba’s future economic development than an effective clean energy transition to provide the power for industrial growth. As Premier Kinew notes, the economy pulls the social cart.

Let’s not shoot the horse.

Scott Forbes is an ecologist at the University of Winnipeg.