What’s next for Manitoba’s PC party?

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This article was published 16/12/2023 (682 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

What does the defeat of the PCs in the October election and the announced departure of leader Heather Stefanson signify for the medium and longer-term future of the party? Will the party select a leader who can promote policy positions which bridge the rural/conservative and urban/progressive divide within the party? Will the next leader achieve over time a strong connection with voters, especially in Winnipeg?

Political parties are complex entities with a number of components: ideas about the desirable role of government; leaders who embody those ideas in messages and actions; elected representatives and candidates; volunteer members and supporters within the voting population; and a party infrastructure consisting of money, paid staff and other resources.

To begin with ideology, there are a number of variants of conservatism across Canada at both the national level and in the provinces. The “progressive” streak in the Manitoba PC party reflects the pragmatic and moderate mainstream political culture of the province.

The PCs have enjoyed electoral success when the party adopts moderately right-of-centre language and policy positions. In recent decades, for reasons too numerous to be discussed here, the PCs have adopted more individualistic, limited-government thinking.

Leadership philosophy and operating style are the most important factors which shape the ideological and policy orientations of a party. Beginning with premier Duff Roblin ( 1958 to 1967) there was a strong “progressive” streak in the internal culture of the PC party which viewed government as serving positive collective purposes.

Consistent with shifts in conservative thinking elsewhere, when Brian Pallister ascended to the leadership by acclamation in 2012 the party embarked on a path towards a more individualistic, free enterprise orientation. His strong preference for limited government was initially hidden by moderate campaign messages which contributed to a sizable victory in the 2016 election. As premier, however, he single-handedly pushed for downsizing and generalized restraint, which during the pandemic had tragic consequences.

He was probably spared being only the second one-term premier in Manitoba history by holding an early election in 2019 before the full damage of his policies became clear.

Pushed out by his party in August 2021, his successor Heather Stefanson lacked the attributes of an effective leader. After trailing badly in the polls for two years, she sought a recovery with an opportunistic 2023 spring budget of tax cuts and new spending initiatives. Late in the campaign, the party launched the most negative, reprehensible attack ads ever seen in a Manitoba election.

The PC party has an extensive history of governing the province. From 1958 to 2023, the party was in power for approximately 23 years compared to 32 years for the NDP over the same period.

There have been 11 PC leaders (two were interim) over that period, only seven of whom became premier. This compares to the NDP history of six leaders (one interim), five of whom became premier during that period.

Infighting over leadership has harmed the PC party in terms of its image and effectiveness.

The 2021 PC leadership contest to replace Pallister was a rushed, chaotic event leading to allegations of unfairness and to a court case which confirmed Stefanson’s surprisingly narrow victory over Shelly Glover who protested COVID restrictions and alleged control of the party by Winnipeg elites.

In Pallister’s final year as leader, the party membership had dropped to just over 5,000. The leadership race brought in 20,000 new members, a surge which overwhelmed the party apparatus. A report on the problem warned of the potential hijacking of the party by outside, single-issue groups on the far right.

Prior to the October election, 15 PC MLAs, many from Winnipeg, announced their retirement from politics. In the election, the PCs lost 13 seats, but captured 42 per cent of the popular vote so there is a foundation for rebuilding.

Nineteen of its 22 MLAs, however, represent non-Winnipeg constituencies so the opposition caucus is predominantly rural and conservative in composition.

The forthcoming leadership contest to choose a successor to Stefanson will be crucial to the future of the party. An acclamation or a bungled contest would deepen the slump of the party. Two proposed rules for the contest will greatly influence the outcome.

First, there is a proposed points system that will cap the influence of constituencies where leadership contenders recruit short-term members who outnumber longer term volunteers who have kept the party running at the local level. This rule would limit the chances of a non- establishment leadership challenger.

Second, voting will be by preferential (ranked) balloting which means that the eventual winner will have at least 50 per cent of the vote. It also supports the potential emergence of a compromise choice whose appeal is not exclusively to either the conservative or the progressive sides of the party.

Clearly the next leader must move the party closer to a pragmatic, centrist position that aligns with Manitoba’s political culture and might win more votes/seats in Winnipeg.

Paul G. Thomas is professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba.