What’s up with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro?

Opinion

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This article was published 08/01/2024 (640 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

What exactly is going on with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro?

Is he really preparing to invade his petroleum-rich neighbour Guyana?

As is often the case in Latin America, this is a long-standing land boundary dispute that goes back to the 1840s. In fact, three-quarters of the land claimed by English-speaking Guyana (which offers access to as much as 20 billion barrels of oil and projected mineral wealth) has, since Spanish colonial rule, been viewed by Caracas as Venezuelan territory.

So after an early December non-binding referendum, the Venezuelan government claimed that roughly 95 per cent of voters — though that figure is much higher than independent exit polls — supported the incorporation of the disputed territory.

Even if the numbers did not exactly add up, there is a general consensus in Venezuela in taking back ownership of what they believe is rightfully theirs.

International arbitrators (including those from Britain, the U.S. and Russia), however, established the present borders in 1899 (when it was a British colony). But this long disputed territory has been before the United Nation’s International Court of Justice (IJC) for a number of years — with a final decision not expected before the end of the decade.

Not surprisingly, Venezuela wholeheartedly rejects the IJC’s jurisdiction and prefers to resolve things on its own terms. That explains why it fervently defied a recent statement by the IJC to respect the existing borders and to not move forward with its territorial ambitions.

Maduro, though, is moving ahead with plans to have the National Assembly endorse legislation that makes Essequibo a part of Venezuela. He has also instructed the Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA to start issuing exploration and extraction licences on the disputed territory. In addition, the estimated 125,000 Guyanese now currently living there will be automatically granted Venezuelan citizenship.

The overall plan is to create a new Venezuelan state called “Guayana Essequibo” and to declare it an Internal Defence Zone.

There will now be a military major-general with sole control and authority over the Essequibo. And that means that foreign oil companies will have three months to effectively shut down their operations in Guyana so as to allow “PDVSA-Esequibo” to manage all oil activities in the region.

In response, Guyana has condemned the illegal annexation gambit and put its armed forces on high alert. It has also notified the UN Secretary General and asked that the Security Council to actively consider this sensitive matter.

Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali subsequently issued a blunt statement: “Guyana views this as an imminent threat … and will intensify precautionary measures to safeguard its territory.”

Brazil has also expressed concern and has fortified its border with Venezuela and Guyana by deploying boots on the ground and armoured military vehicles. You can be sure that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is hoping to defuse the situation and to avoid any further escalation of the dispute.

No one in the region wants to see Venezuela invade Guyana and set in motion a violent period of instability, death and the potential widening of the conflict.

The fact of the matter is that Venezuela’s Maduro is desperately searching for an electoral lifeline — and a short-term diversionary tactic.

Yes, there are past historical land claims with Guyana and potential economic motives for acquiring Essequibo to help ease the country’s horrific humanitarian and financial crisis (exacerbated by U.S. sanctions). But those are secondary justifications.

His real motivation is to use the border dispute to rally nationalist sentiment and to boost popular backing for Maduro before the 2024 presidential election. Sensing U.S. weakness, some observers are also worried that he will impose martial law after a military confrontation with Guyana as a means of increasing his chances of re-election — or to cancel elections outright.

The United States, which would like nothing more than to see Maduro ousted, has clearly sided with Guyana and offered its “unwavering support” to President Ali.

While Washington has called for a peaceful resolution of the border dispute (and one assumes that Canada thinks along those same lines), it has not yet said what it will do if Maduro recklessly takes matters into his own hands and invades Guyana. But the U.S. Southern Command, which is responsible for overseeing military activity and co-operation in the region, has recently undertaken special forces’ exercises and flight operations with the Guyanese armed forces over its territory.

It’s hard to believe that a full-scale invasion of Guyana is in the cards — not the least because of a shortage of Venezuelan equipment and military personnel. Much of Maduro’s tough talk is about galvanizing Venezuelans around his political leadership, dividing the opposition and poking the Americans in the eye (and securing a bargaining chip in the process).

So everyone should just take a breath and wait for this mostly manufactured crisis to resolve itself peacefully.

Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.