Deep divides threaten Tory election hopes

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 09/01/2024 (644 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Millions of Canadians want change, and they want it now. The problem is they don’t know what that change would entail, and they don’t agree on what it should be.

Last week, the Nanos polling company released the results of a poll it conducted in early December, which found that 46 per cent of respondents wanted an election immediately or sometime in 2024. Thirty-three per cent preferred the election be held in 2025, while 17 per cent had no preference.

The greatest desire for an election now or sometime this year is here in the Prairies, where support for the Conservative Party is strongest. In fact, the level of each region’s desire for an election generally mirrors the Tories’ current levels of support in those regions.

With the Conservatives currently enjoying a solid lead in the polls, the desire among party supporters to strike while the iron is hot is understandable. The problem is there is no consensus among Canadians, or even among Tory supporters, as to what a Conservative government in Ottawa would or should do.

In late December, the Abacus Data polling company released the results of a poll it conducted earlier that month. The company asked almost 2,000 Canadians what they thought a Conservative federal government led by Pierre Poilievre would or should do if elected. The results were surprising.

Thirty-five per cent of respondents believed a Tory government definitely or probably would “end the national child-care program established by the Liberals,” while 36 per cent felt the Tories probably or definitely wouldn’t.

Thirty-nine per cent of respondents believed the Tories definitely or probably would “make it harder for women to have an abortion,” but 33 per cent felt they definitely or probably wouldn’t.

Sixty-two per cent of all respondents said the Conservatives should eliminate the carbon tax, but a whopping 81 per cent said the Tories should “take dealing with climate change seriously.” How do you reconcile that?

Among Conservative Party supporters, the contradictions were even clearer. Eighty-six per cent of respondents said a Poilievre government should eliminate the carbon tax, but 78 per cent also said that the government should take climate change seriously.

Thirty-five per cent of those same Tory supporters said a future Conservative government should end the national child-care program, but 65 said it shouldn’t. Thirty-four per cent of Tory respondents said the national dental care program should be ended, but 66 per cent disagreed. Fifty-six per cent said all funding for English-language CBC should be cut, while 44 per cent said it shouldn’t.

The Abacus polling results expose many divisions among Conservative Party supporters on various issues, but there were several other contentious issues they weren’t asked about.

For example, Conservative Party MP Leslyn Lewis, a former CPC leadership candidate, is pushing a petition to have Canada withdraw from the United Nations and World Health Organization. Most Canadians would strongly oppose such a reckless proposal, if they were aware of it.

Poilievre told the National Post last month that “we have to respect parental rights and I stand for parental rights because I trust parents to make the right decision for their kids.” Despite the divisive debate that has recently occurred in Manitoba, New Brunswick and other provinces on that issue, he thinks his position is a vote-winner. Many Canadians likely disagree.

All that information leads to three conclusions. First, the opposition to the Trudeau government isn’t based on a clearly articulated, credible alternative. Rather, the Tories are trying to frame the next election as a referendum on Trudeau. That’s a risky strategy that could backfire.

Second, there is no consensus among Conservative Party supporters on several issues that could influence voters’ choices on election day. As the Tories’ positions on those issues become clearer, it will inevitably drive some supporters away.

Finally, this is good news for the Trudeau Liberals. There is no great pressure for an early election, and there are serious fault lines among Tory supporters on “ballot box” issues. With inflation falling and the economy expected to rebound, the frustration felt by many voters will likely subside before the next election.

Viewed from that perspective, its no wonder the Tories want an election now. Time is not on their side.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross