True-blue Tuxedo poised to turn NDP orange

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 14/05/2024 (511 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

In last year’s provincial election, they won the coveted River Heights riding for the first time in their party’s history.

Now, Manitoba’s New Democrats have their sights set on an even bigger prize, and nobody should expect them to squander that opportunity.

Since its creation prior to the 1981 provincial election, Manitoba’s Tuxedo constituency has always been represented by a Progressive Conservative MLA — first by Gary Filmon and then by Heather Stefanson. That undefeated streak could soon come to an end, however, when Tuxedo voters elect a candidate to replace Stefanson, who resigned as MLA on May 6.

Under provincial law, the byelection must be held within six months of the seat becoming vacant, meaning the Tuxedo contest must happen by Nov. 6. Nobody should be surprised if Premier Wab Kinew chooses a much earlier date, however.

Indeed, there are several reasons for New Democrats to feel optimistic about winning the byelection, starting with the reality that Tuxedo is no longer a safe Tory seat. In the past three provincial elections, Stefanson’s share of votes cast dropped from almost 58 per cent in 2016 to almost 48 per cent in 2019, and then just 40 per cent last October.

In last fall’s election, NDP candidate Larissa Ashdown, a political unknown who did not live in the riding, came within just 269 votes of defeating Stefanson. She did that despite spending just $1,572.48 on her campaign, and with virtually no support from the NDP central campaign team.

According to multiple NDP sources, the party’s central campaign team was unaware the contest was so close in Tuxedo and, had they known, they would have poured money and manpower into the riding to secure the win.

They fumbled a huge opportunity to take the riding from the Tories last fall, and are determined to ensure that doesn’t happen in the upcoming byelection. The NDP candidate will have an ample supply of money and campaign workers. In fact, NDP supporters are reportedly knocking on doors in the riding already.

A second factor in the NDP’s favour is the current polling numbers, which reveal that the post-election honeymoon continues for the party. Those lofty numbers will eventually soften, but it’s unlikely to happen before the byelection is held.

Third, the Tories are currently adrift in a leadership and policy vacuum that won’t be resolved until their new leader is elected in April of next year. It’s hard to win a byelection without a party leader, without any sense of the direction the new leader may take the party in, and without being able to offer voters well-defined policy alternatives.

Fourth, there are the issues of voter enthusiasm and the tradition of low voter turnout in byelections, especially during the summer. NDP voters will see the byelection as an opportunity to win the riding for the first time by electing a candidate who will join the government caucus, and perhaps even be in cabinet.

Tory supporters, on the other hand, will be far less motivated to bother to vote for a candidate who will likely languish on the opposition backbenches for the next several years.

A fifth factor is the strength and enthusiasm of the NDP campaign, compared to the Tories. It’s not easy to recruit campaign workers who are willing to give up a month of their time in the summer.

New Democrats see the byelection as a golden opportunity to further demoralize and divide the Tories, by seizing what was once an “unlosable” Tory riding. That’s plenty of motivation to work on the NDP campaign, compared to the Tories, who don’t know who their next leader will be, let alone what specific policies the party stands for.

Finally, Liberal candidates in Tuxedo received more than 2,200 votes in each of the past two provincial elections. With the Libs still struggling to recover from last fall’s election, which saw them lose two of their three seats, most of those votes are up for grabs and will likely go to the NDP.

For more than four decades, the Tuxedo riding has been a solid Tory blue. For all the reasons set out above, nobody should be surprised if, following the upcoming byelection, there is a new coat of paint in the riding — NDP orange.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross