Justin is the perfect leader of the Justin Party

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 21/06/2024 (448 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is snorkelling at depths of unpopularity that rival those of former prime minister Brian Mulroney, shortly before the PC Party of old was obliterated in the 1993 national election.

Trudeau’s Liberals now stand at 22 per cent support among Canadians, according to the latest Abacus poll. This is barely above the NDP, and far below Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives who enjoy the support of 42 per cent of Canadians. Under the rules of our electoral system, this is wipeout territory for the Liberals.

This raises the question: why does the Liberal Party continue to tolerate a leader that is dragging them into the cellar? Why doesn’t the party give Trudeau a pink slip? Besides some grumpy senators and Liberal-aligned columnists, there is virtually no effort nor movement intent on and working to give the leader the boot.

The Liberal Party of Canada is one of the most successful — if not the most successful — parties in the history of the democratic world. The party of old would never have tolerated a leader who appeared to be pushing it to electoral oblivion.

So how is Trudeau still holding on?

Here’s one answer: Trudeau is still leader because he’s not the leader of the Liberal Party of Old. Rather, he’s the leader of the Justin Party.

Hear me out. Between 2006 and 2015, the Liberal Party well and truly fell apart in terms of leadership, organization and finances. Paul Martin, Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff led the Liberals to three resounding defeats in this period.

This culminated in the 2011 election in which the party plumbed new depths, falling behind Jack Layton’s NDP to third place. It seemed like, as the Liberal Party disintegrated, the Canadian party system was transforming before our eyes, and that the once-dominant Liberal Party would become a minor party of the centre, much like the U.K.’s Liberal Democrats.

Trudeau is the person that changed that historical trajectory, sweeping the Liberal Party back into power in 2015 in a remarkable and unexpected victory. The Liberals won in 2015, not on the basis of Liberal popularity, but rather on the basis of Trudeau’s own appeal and “sunny ways” campaigning.

In 2015, Trudeau rescued a party that was well and truly broken and proceeded to remake it in his own image. And that continued well into Trudeau’s time as prime minister.

What has Trudeau’s remaking of the Liberal Party consisted of? Over his time in office, the Liberal Party has become much more ideologically left-wing and has come to more closely reflect Trudeau’s own socially progressive politics. The Liberals have largely ceased being a brokerage party, willing to veer to both the left and right as the party did throughout Canadian history. The party’s current agreement with the NDP fits the new Liberals like a glove.

Don’t believe me? My students are often mystified to hear that, prior to Trudeau, the Liberal caucus had a sizable and at times influential pro-life contingent in its caucus. The party — a big broad tent — tolerated these MPs, and they in turn remained within the party and contributed to broadening the tent.

But Trudeau ended that in 2014, proclaiming that any Liberal MP would need to vote the pro-choice line on any abortion bill, or be booted from the party. On a whole range of issues (especially social issues), Trudeau sought ideological conformity rather than encouraging a broad range of perspectives.

Trudeau has dragged the party to the left, ended brokerage politics, and left his own policy stamp on the Liberals. This became particularly true after the departure of Finance Minister Bill Morneau, who was likely one of the last of the “business Liberals” of old, in 2020. Morneau is now publicly critical of the new Liberal Party, and the power of Morneau’s old faction is virtually nil in the party.

The Liberal Party has also become more stylistically Trudeaupian over time. Trudeau’s approach to politics, both good and bad, can be detected across his front bench. Almost every Liberal MP has never served under a leader other than Trudeau. And, for a surprisingly high number of Canadians, he is the only Liberal prime minister they have ever lived under.

The prime minister has also flexed the Justinian muscle to maintain control over his party. Cabinet ministers who have come up against the leader have — either slowly or quickly — found themselves sidelined. Just ask Morneau, or former ministers Jane Philpott and Jody Wilson- Raybould. Trudeau’s grip on the party has strengthened, not weakened, over time.

The Liberal Party of old would never have tolerated Trudeau’s low polling numbers and would have found some way to show him the door. But this isn’t the Liberal Party of old, it’s the Justin Party. And this new party’s inability to adapt in changing circumstances might lead it straight into electoral disaster in the coming election.

Royce Koop is a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba and academic director of the Centre for Social Science Research and Policy.