Arguments for and against Trudeau

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/07/2024 (440 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

I never thought the Liberals would lose the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection. A close margin would have been embarrassing for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. But to lose a solid Liberal seat was sure to ignite rebellion against his leadership.

So it has. Former cabinet ministers and a few members of the current caucus have called on Trudeau to step aside. There are whispers of much larger numbers of Liberal MPs who are ready to do so, but are skittish about going on the record. One loose-lipped current cabinet minister was overheard testing the waters over how bad things are for Trudeau.

Just ask former deposed leaders how these rebellions tend to unfold: first gradually, then suddenly. By the time you’re reading this, whispers and grumbles may have transformed into full-on infighting. Trudeau has faced challenges to his leadership before, but not like this.

Will Liberals give their leader the boot?

On one hand, it seems as though things could not possibly get worse under a new leader, so why not take the plunge? If the election were held today, Trudeau’s polling relative to Pierre Poilievre’s Tories would produce a dismal outcome for the Liberals, especially once the electoral system was done rewarding the winner and punishing the losers. Part of the reason Trudeau is now facing a serious challenge is because many Liberal MPs can see that if the party loses in St. Paul’s, what chance do they have?

Could a new leader right the good ship Liberal? Maybe.

Lots of people in Ottawa are currently resurrecting the memory of the 1993 federal election. Then-Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, like Trudeau, was mired in low polling numbers, so he quit and handed over the reins to a promising young cabinet minister named Kim Campbell.

At first, the decision was seen to be a shrewd one: Campbell was a breath of fresh air in federal politics and polled quite well. But she went on to step in several cowpies during the subsequent campaign, such as famously lecturing journalists that election campaigns were no time to discuss serious policy issues. Campbell led the PCs to one of the worse showings of any major party in the history of the democratic world: from a majority government to two seats.

The election of 1993 is a stark reminder to Liberals that a change in leadership is not always the best course of action. There are other reasons why it is likely that Trudeau will hang on.

The most important is that any Liberal leadership race has the potential to turn into a counterproductive gong show. This is in part due to the remarkable rules that allow pretty much anyone to cast a vote in a Liberal leadership race. In 2013, the party changed its rules so that “supporters” could cast ballots in leadership races. In 2016, the party did away with membership fees altogether, opening up its leadership races to wide swathes of Canadians.

That could be a boon to the party if candidates are able to mobilize large movements of Canadians to support their runs, as Trudeau himself did in 2013. But the concern is that strongly mobilized groups will attempt to capture the race, and that a Liberal leadership race that is supposed to produce a leader who appeals to as many Canadians as possible will instead be selected on the basis of narrow but motivated sections of Canadian society.

It does not take much imagination to think that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinians that is currently tearing at the fabric of Canadian civil society, for example, will find its way into any Liberal leadership contest.

Further, the clock is ticking, and each passing day makes it harder and harder to dislodge Trudeau. Constitutionally, the Liberals could wait until September 2026 to call the election. But relatively new fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act mean that the election must be held by October 2025.

A little over one year to hold a leadership race and allow the new leader to leave his or her stamp on the government is a tall order. Memories of Kim Campbell loom large in this scenario. Of course, the Liberal majority government could simply do away with the fixed-date requirement, giving themselves an extra year in office under a new leader (we have seen something similar done before here in Manitoba). But is the party prepared to endure the intense—though fleeting—backlash that will inevitably result from such a move?

If Liberal dissidents plan on showing their leader the door, then they’d better get their rears in gear. Taking the summer off will mean Trudeau will almost certainly lead the party into the next election.

Royce Koop is a professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba and academic director of the Centre for Social Science Research and Policy.