Storm clouds on horizon for Manitoba NDP

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This article was published 09/07/2024 (632 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

These are heady times for Manitoba’s New Democrats.

The latest Probe Research poll found that the NDP hold a 51-38 lead over the Progressive Conservatives province-wide, and a commanding 59-29 margin in Winnipeg.

In addition, the NDP are coming off a big win in the Tuxedo byelection, and the Angus Reid polling organization announced two weeks ago that Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew continues to be Canada’s most popular premier, with a massive 66 per cent approval rating. With all of that good news, it’s no surprise many New Democrats, and even some pundits, are saying an NDP victory in the next provincial election, scheduled for 2027, is all but inevitable. That’s a mistake, for several reasons.

First, last October’s election wasn’t the NDP landslide many now seem to (falsely) remember it as. The Tories ran the worst campaign in party history, yet still won 22 seats (reduced to 21 after their loss in Tuxedo) and came within a total of just 3131 votes, spread over seven ridings, from being re-elected with a majority. Even now, they are just eight seats away from a majority government.

Second, it’s remarkable that the Tories are at 38 per cent in the Probe poll, despite having neither a leader nor a clear set of policies. Once a new leader is in place, with a cogent alternative vision to offer voters, the NDP’s lead will inevitably shrink.

Third and most importantly, the Kinew government must navigate serious challenges before the next election, on critical issues that could influence the outcome of that contest. For example, the NDP were elected on the promise to improve the quality of health care throughout the province, including a commitment to reduce wait times. Lamentably, the latest data from Manitoba Health reveal that ER wait times are still significantly higher than they were two years ago, and still among the highest in the nation. Beyond that, the median wait time for hip replacement surgery is the highest it’s been in the past four years, and the median wait time for knee replacement surgery jumped from 24 weeks last December to 31 weeks in May.

The NDP argue the high wait times aren’t their fault, but they claimed they could do a better job than the Tory government they defeated. They said they would fix health care and voters expect them to deliver on that promise. If they can’t show tangible improvement, it will cost them votes in the next election.

The NDP is also vulnerable on its management of Manitoba Hydro. A year ago, Manitobans were shocked to learn the Crown corporation doesn’t have enough generating capacity to satisfy the increased demand for electricity that is expected over the next few years, let alone provide power for new industrial projects. Despite the looming electricity shortage, and the catastrophe it would cause for homeowners and businesses, the Kinew government still hasn’t presented a plan to solve the problem. The clock is ticking and the possibility of rolling blackouts is increasing. If that happens before the next election, voters will know who to blame.

Finally, there is the issue of the province’s fiscal future. Bond rating agencies expect the Kinew government to keep its promise to balance the budget by the 2027/28 fiscal year, but that commitment rests on shaky assumptions that the government’s annual revenues will increase by a staggering $4.5 billion between now and then, and that expenditures will only grow by half that much during that time. If those very ambitious goals can’t be achieved in that tight timeframe, the province will be at risk of an even higher debt-to-GDP ratio, a credit rating downgrade and higher borrowing costs. Such a situation could necessitate a range of austerity measures, including reduced services and tax increases – and we all remember what happened to the previous NDP government that tried to raise taxes.

The Kinew government has already burned through 20 per cent of its mandate, and has little to show for it. On a host of issues, the NDP has created expectations that voters expect them to deliver on.

If they fail to satisfy those expectations, the next election could be much closer than many expect.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon.

deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross