Biden’s stumbles make RFK a dangerous wildcard

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This article was published 20/07/2024 (775 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Joe Biden’s re-election bid is under siege. Following his nationally televised debate meltdown, deep pocketed donors have withheld funding. At least 20 congressional Democrats are demanding the president drop out of the race. A new poll shows almost two-thirds of Democratic voters agree.

The party’s leadership is now trying to accelerate Biden’s confirmation as its nominee ahead of the Democratic National Convention next month. Yet even if they succeed, Biden’s issues of age and frailty won’t disappear. And as Republicans rally around Trump as a martyr — viewing his brush with death as a sign of divine intervention — lingering concerns over Biden risks invigorating the independent third-party candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Otherwise known as RFK, the former environmental lawyer and member of America’s pseudo royal family has zero chance of actually winning. But polling from May shows him pulling in roughly 10 per cent of voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This could be enough to tilt the entire outcome of the elections in Trump’s favour.

The Electoral College system in the U.S. amplifies the strategic importance of these swing states. In a tight national race, voters in such districts essentially decide the winner.

Biden received a historic 74 million votes in 2020 — almost seven million more than Trump. Yet analysts have calculated the difference between Biden winning or losing in 2020 boiled down to how 44,000 people cast their ballots in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. Trump likewise lost the popular vote in 2016 but beat Hillary Clinton thanks to 80,000 people in swing states.

Even a slight bump in support for RFK could be an election spoiler by fragmenting the vote in unpredictable ways. Especially since he holds a bizarre mix of appeal to segments on both the left and the right of the political spectrum.

The Kennedy brand is well-known and synonymous with the Democratic party. RFK also has a long history prosecuting cases of corporate abuses and Big Pharma’s gaslighting of medical patients — two causes near and dear to progressives. He has promised to put the U.S. federal budget on blockchain to improve government transparency and accountability. He is generally in favour of abortion access.

Yet the 70-year-old political scion has also embraced regressive alpha-male masculinity and promoted baseless conspiracy theories involving vaccines and 5G technology. In a nod to anti-government obsessions over the supposed “deep state,” he claims the CIA orchestrated the 1963 assassination of his uncle, president John F. Kennedy.

He has also rejected the idea of Israel committing to a ceasefire and called Donald Trump’s conviction in a hush money trial “profoundly undemocratic.”

Throughout all of this, RFK has found the most traction among young men that live their lives on the internet. Their support is underpinned by endorsements from social media influencers and controversial former NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers, among others. Kennedy has been a repeat guest on Joe Rogan’s podcast, too.

This presents challenges to both Trump and Biden. Donald Trump has tried to portray RFK as a “radical leftist” and “environmental extremist” that favours open borders. Meanwhile, members of Kennedy’s own family have denounced his campaign as a distraction that could propel Trump to victory.

This is especially true now that Trump is leading Biden in the majority of swing states. The recent attempt on his life will likely boost GOP voter turnout as well. Indeed, populists thrive off of feelings of persecution and victimhood — real or perceived.

Third-party candidates have also historically peeled independent and unenthusiastic voters away from Democrats more than Republicans. Such was the case in 2000, when Ralph Nader roiled the Democratic vote, handing George W. Bush the keys to the White House over Al Gore.

Biden is not getting any younger. If he holds on as the Democratic nominee past the party’s national convention next month, the pace of campaigning will be unlike anything demanded of him four years ago. Back then, pandemic lockdowns meant Biden relied on surrogates and was able to shuttle between events virtually from the basement of his Delaware home.

Instead, to win this time, Biden must maintain a constant public presence — increasing the chances his intensely scrutinized appearances will amplify his inevitable gaffes and evident age.

To engineer Trump’s defeat come November, the Democratic Party needs a new candidate. As it stands, if even a few of the one in four voters who say they are disillusioned with both current candidates protest by casting their ballot for RFK, it could expose America — and the world — to Trump’s autocratic aims.

Kyle Hiebert is a Winnipeg-based political risk analyst and former deputy editor of the Africa Conflict Monitor.