Venezuelan suffering: no end in sight

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 07/08/2024 (742 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

I wish that I knew how exactly the Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE) came to the conclusion that President Nicolás Maduro had been re-elected. What we do know, however, is that the presidential elections were not totally free and fair.

The council, which is largely comprised of government loyalists, claimed that Maduro’s United Socialist Party garnered 52 per cent of the overall vote, while the opposition Democratic Unitary Platform had secured just 43 per cent. But it’s hard to imagine that those figures actually represent the will of the Venezuelan people.

I sort of figured that something wasn’t right on Sunday morning when Maduro, having just voted earlier, said that he would honour the final electoral tally. With a straight face, he intoned: “I realize and will recognize the electoral referee (the CNE), the official announcements and I will make sure they are recognized.”

Just in case no one was sure of who to vote for, one should recall that Maduro’s picture appeared 13 times on the final presidential ballot. Nor was the opposition’s wildly popular leader, María Corina Machado, allowed to participate in the presidential election even after winning an October 2023 opposition-organized primary contest in a landslide.

Furthermore, millions of Venezuelans living abroad, who left the country because of its dire economic and social conditions, were largely prohibited from voting. Over 100 opposition representatives had also been detained, media coverage was denied the opposition coalition and the ruling “Chavistas” prevented local precincts from independently verifying the voter tallies. In addition, international election observers were mostly banned from monitoring the voting process inside Venezuela.

While the economic situation on the ground in Venezuela has improved in recent months, the cumulative impact over the last 10 years or so has been devastating. There is now a real fear that large-scale opposition protests will kick into high gear across the country – no doubt triggering a violent and unrelenting crackdown by the Maduro government (with some reports claiming over 20 dead).

There was some speculation that the Venezuelan military, a powerful institution in the country and throughout much of Latin America, might intercede if the electoral fix was in (a charge that was also made about the 2018 Venezuelan election). But that was always going to be a long shot, particularly since Maduro has made a point of ensuring the loyalty of the Armed Forces and that members of the Venezuelan military brass feared the repercussions of an opposition victory.

It does appear for the moment, then, that the Bolivarian Revolution, first initiated by Hugo Chávez in 1998-1999, will continue to struggle under Maduro’s leadership. But how will the rest of the international community respond to these disputed presidential election results. Though it may be too early to tell right now, it’s hard to imagine that countries in Latin America, the European Union (EU) and North America will remain quiet.

A number of countries in the region, including Costa Rica, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay and Peru (whose ambassadors have now been expelled from the country), have already expressed their dissatisfaction with the election results in Venezuela. It remains to be seen, however, whether Maduro-friendly governments in Colombia, Brazil or even in the Caribbean will advocate for tougher measures against Maduro. Admittedly, Mexico may be a wild card here simply because it is going through a presidential transition of its own.

It is true that countries such as Russia, Bolivia, Iran, Honduras and China will be pleased with the electoral outcome. The Cubans, still dependent on irregular and decreasing supplies of Venezuelan oil, will also be relieved that a right-leaning opposition did not come to power.

It’s hard to know for sure, though, how the lame-duck Joe Biden Administration in the U.S. will respond to the electoral outcome in Venezuela. But in a high-stakes presidential election year, you can be pretty sure that it won’t casually look the other way. So you can expect that more punitive economic and diplomatic steps (such as recognizing the Platform’s Edmundo González Urrutia as the election winner) against the Maduro government are not far off.

It is unlikely that the Trudeau Liberals will stray too far from the Biden White House response. One would expect a toughly worded statement from Ottawa criticizing the electoral outcome, a call for some form of external investigation of the election process and an additional ratcheting up of targeted sanctions against the Venezuelan government (triggering a further exodus of Venezuelan migrants).

Of course, the Venezuelans are no strangers to being isolated in the world and treated as outcasts. Accordingly, the country is likely to be subjected to a longer list of punishing sanctions — especially against the critically important energy sector (which is the country’s economic life-blood). The only question now is: how many new countries will partake in a broader international sanctions coalition against Venezuela?

Unfortunately, the end result will only prolong the suffering of beleaguered Venezuelans once again. And there is really no end in sight.

Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.