Elmwood-Transcona voters and a brand new party

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 21/08/2024 (431 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

From now until mid-September, the good citizens of the Elmwood-Transcona riding may want to take refuge behind the sofa. The federal byelection on Sept. 16 means political doorknockers — including a candidate from the newly minted Canadian Future Party — will stick their well-worn shoe in the front door while hot dinners congeal on kitchen tables.

Incumbent Daniel Blaikie, forever appended with “Bill Blaikie’s son,” could have coasted on his father’s political dynasty. Instead, Daniel Blaikie accepted a consulting job with Wab Kinew’s government. Hence the federal byelection.

This byelection is the Canadian Future Party’s golden opportunity for a soft launch. Will their centrist policies be welcomed or will the CFP candidate — federal public servant Zbig Strycharz, who doesn’t live in the riding — face a hostile reception?

My money is on the NDP candidate, Leila Dance. Dance has union backing and the advantage of an NDP stronghold. Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, has endorsed Dance. Dance is a lifelong Transcona resident and former executive director of Transcona BIZ. If elected, Dance would be the first woman MP to win this seat.

Dance has a formidable opponent in the Conservative Party candidate, electrician Colin Reynolds, who was pictured recently with Pierre Poilievre at a party rally in Winnipeg. Reynolds has positioned himself as a friend of the working man since he’s also a card-carrying member of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers 2085 — a strategic choice for the Tories. (Daniel Blaikie was a member of the same electrician’s union, which has endorsed Leila Dance.)

Other potential dinner-hour spoilers include Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre, a retired teacher and union leader; People’s Party of Canada candidate Byron Gryba, a property manager; and the Green Party’s Nic Geddert, an advocate and volunteer.

Will the Canadian Future Party charm its way into east Winnipeg’s gritty political landscape? Unlikely. They traditionally backs the socialists — except for a brief 2011–2015 window during the Harper government — while south Winnipeg is predominantly Tory. A Liberal hasn’t sat in Daniel Blaikie’s seat since 1953.

Winnipeg’s sharply divided political map hasn’t changed much since I was a Fort Richmond teen door-knocking for my Tory candidate father in St. Vital’s working-class flats. It was 1981 when Sterling Lyon and Howard Pawley squared off in a classic Tory versus NDP provincial election.

The provincial Liberals remained lost in the wilderness while pragmatic Winnipeggers gleefully pocketed any federal Liberal monies that Lloyd Axworthy could cart home in his cabinet minister’s ruck sack. (Fun fact: in 1980, Axworthy was the only Liberal MP west of Ontario.)

In October 1981, my late father, journalist John Robertson, impulsively quit a lucrative TV hosting job at CBC Winnipeg to run for Sterling Lyon’s Progressive Conservative Party. I was an undergraduate at the University of Manitoba who subversively dragged my communist boyfriend around St. Vital to get a conservative candidate elected. The trunk of his three-on-the-tree Corvair was filled with campaign signs. Our only sustenance was a case of Blatz beer.

Yet a popular TV host’s name recognition wasn’t enough to win the hearts of St. Vital voters. Elmwood-Transcona’s loyal union voter base will be no different. It’s a Manitoba tradition to stick to your guns. No amount of tool-belt-posturing will convince skeptical locals to vote against their interests.

Case in point: my grandfather, Eric Brough, lived in the riding where his fancy, media star son-in-law ran for the provincial conservatives. Eric worked as a town shop union steward for the City of Winnipeg, painted his own house, burned his mortgage before retirement and seeded root crops in a second garden outside of the Perimeter Highway.

Bessie, my Fan Girl grandmother, door-knocked tirelessly for her son-in-law with my mother, Betty. Bessie cleaned the bathrooms at campaign headquarters while Eric, in his living room window, pasted an orange Jim Walding NDP sign next to Dad’s blue Progressive Conservative version.

John Robertson lost the election to pharmacist Walding. The surplus “Vote for Robertson” signs were burned for warmth when the communist hosted my younger brother, Tim, on a celebratory fall hunting trip.

Premier Howard Pawley and his NDP gleefully assumed the reins until 1988 when Jim Walding crossed the floor to the Progressive Conservatives, defeated the government and the Tories were returned to power.

Dad, who returned to journalism, relished the irony that although he had been defeated by the NDP candidate, his foe had still undermined Pawley.

As for the Elmwood-Transcona, Canadian Future’s prospects in that working class bastion are slim. Their “future” lies in centrist bastions like Toronto and Vancouver where disaffected Liberals crave a fresh brand. Eager campaigners won’t find any centrists. Unless you’re NDP, the blinds will be closed and the front porch will be darkened to political interlopers.

Independent journalist Patricia Dawn Robertson hails from Winnipeg. Her memoir, Media Brat, on growing up on the sidelines of professional sport, releases in October 2024.