Climate denial and crimes against humanity

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 18/09/2024 (401 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

In 2008, David Suzuki made the inflammatory argument that climate-denying politicians should be jailed.

It caused a firestorm of controversy and made him the enemy of the fossil fuel industry everywhere and persona non grata in Alberta. At the time, I thought Suzuki was being hyperbolic, and not in a useful way. Today I am less sure.

We have come a long way since 2008. The science of climate change grows ever more robust and the catastrophic effects of unabated greenhouse gas emissions are now coming into sharp focus. We no longer talk about the distant future, but the span of our current lifetimes.

The science of paleontology, an arcane discipline for most equated with Jurassic Park movies, provides us with a clear picture of the effects of runaway greenhouse gases: the obliteration of life on Earth.

A quarter billion years ago, a sixfold rise in carbon dioxide levels, from current-day levels (~400 ppm) to ~2500 ppm raised global temperatures 10-15 degrees C. The source of the carbon was Siberian coal beds ignited by volcanic activity. It took roughly 60,000 to 70,000 years to abate, and the result was that nine out of 10 species on Earth went extinct. It was the planet killer.

We are now on pace to do that in 600 years.

But long before that we’ll see catastrophic ecological damage — e.g., with just a 2 C rise from pre-industrial levels, we lose our coral reefs, home to a myriad of marine species. Recent work shows the Big Five mass extinctions over the last half billion years (where we lost around 75 per cent of marine species) were associated with global temperature changes of 5.2 C or more. At current rates of fossil fuel consumption, we’re on pace to hit a 4 C increase or more by 2100. That will trigger a mass extinction event, albeit not quite at Big Five levels.

But before even that, life for humans will become dramatically worse: vast swaths of the planet becoming uninhabitable; enormous population movements; water and food shortages on unprecedented scales. Farmers worried about the effects of changes in capital gains taxes should be more worried about dust bowl conditions rendering their farmlands worthless.

Our current crop of short-sighted politicians, especially in Canada, are failing the greatest challenge of our era. And we require more than just carbon taxes.

Diverse climate action policies are needed to get where we must go. Climate economists tell us that the most efficient tool in the toolbox is carbon pricing. Without it, tackling climate change grows more difficult and far more expensive. But it needs to be coupled to incentives to embrace low-carbon technology, some flexible regulations that allow business to find best practices — e.g., industrywide targets for zero-emissions vehicles that allow companies to trade credits; and some mandates (e.g., banning coal), a blend of carrots and sticks.

Canada today is a climate pariah. While emissions fall elsewhere, ours are rising, due mainly to oil and gas production in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Canadians are beholden to fossil fuel companies and the politicians who support them. Trade barriers are rising for countries not reducing emissions, so the price of inaction will be heavy economic costs as we lose access to export markets.

But we have a cohort of politicians, wilfully blind to the science, who now peddle blatant climate disinformation and greenwashing, led in Canada by Pierre Poilievre.

His “axe the tax” rhetoric has successfully poisoned the waters for carbon pricing. Weak-willed politicians chasing votes at any cost have joined him: Jagmeet Singh now opposes carbon taxes; David Eby will abandon B.C.’s long-standing carbon tax if the federal backstop is removed; and sadly, even Wab Kinew with his gas tax cut. Canada’s climate action policies are now a shambles.

The Trudeau government didn’t help by bungling carbon tax carveouts. But they stand almost alone in taking climate change seriously. Their days in government appear numbered, and once gone, Canada will be bereft of serious climate action.

The science tells us quite clearly what’s coming and one just needs to look out the window to see it happening in real time: Manitoba smothered by wildfire smoke in September. To ignore all the evidence around us to score cheap political points is beyond reprehensible. It is now moving into the realm of criminal behaviour.

I can now see a day fast approaching — perhaps as soon as the middle of the next decade — where climate-denying politicians and leaders of industry face not just ridicule but worse for their malicious behaviour: prosecution for crimes against humanity, so great are the costs.

It appears that Suzuki in 2008 was just a bit ahead of his time.

Scott Forbes is a biologist at the University of Winnipeg currently teaching the ecology of sustainability.