Economics and youth mobility

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This article was published 20/09/2024 (402 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

On paper, Manitoba has a lot to offer young adults — affordable housing, a diverse, stable economy that offers good jobs, plentiful lakes and beaches, world class arts and festivals and an excellent food scene — which begs the question, “Why do so many young adults leave the province?”

Over the past decade, Manitoba has experienced a net loss of 23,140 young people aged 15 to 34 due to interprovincial migration (more people leaving than arriving). This steady loss is especially concerning, as these age cohorts make long-term decisions on where to grow their careers and, if they choose to, start their families.

Once they leave, it is rare to see them return to their home communities. For Manitoba, this loss means a smaller pool from which to draw future leaders and community builders.

Manitoba Chambers of Commerce asked the Canada West Foundation to investigate why young people leave Manitoba and what could encourage them to stay or return, launching a research project funded through the Government of Manitoba’s COVID-19 Long-Term Recovery Fund in late 2023.

In the project’s resulting report, Finding Their Place: Manitoba Youth Mobility, multiple surveys and several focus groups showed that while housing affordability is top of mind for all groups, decisions on where to live are complex. Young people weigh multiple economic, social and quality-of-life factors. Culture and prior experience also play a part.

Newcomers to Canada who have been in the province for more than ten years were the most likely to say they would move for any reason. They viewed Manitoba as somewhere to start out in Canada, but not as a place to stay long term. More than half of the province’s net out-migration is comprised of newcomers.

First Nations youth respondents were the least likely to move out of the province. They value education and work that provides direct benefit to their communities. If they were to move, it would likely be within the province for school or work. They would consider a move outside the province if they could work for an Indigenous employer.

Career-motivated youth perceive Manitoba as a place to start a career but see limited growth opportunities. They agreed that their education was decent and affordable but thought institutions in other provinces had better reputations. Students outside of Winnipeg and Brandon felt that if they had to pay more to live away from home, they would consider all options available to them, not just those in Manitoba.

While youth in rural Manitoba may move to Brandon or Winnipeg, Winnipeggers who move out of the city are most likely to head out of the province. All groups prioritized safe communities, quality transit, walkability, a place’s reputation and the opportunity to achieve career aspirations.

There is no silver bullet to solve such a complex challenge. Businesses, social and economic development organizations, educators, cultural communities, and policy makers each have a role to play. Solutions that support workforce attraction and retention include:

1. Eliminate credential recognition barriers for newcomers in regulated trades and professions.

2. Establish an interprovincial migration recruitment and marketing team to show youth the opportunities for growth in Manitoba’s workforce.

3. Connect businesses with the education system, particularly those outside of Brandon and Winnipeg, to ensure youth are aware of the career opportunities in their communities ahead of graduation.

4. Increase capital investment through the implementation of an accelerated capital cost investment schedule, direct capital investment tax incentives, or small business capital funds.

5. Share positive stories of successful Manitobans and Manitoba businesses, both within and outside of the province.

These recommendations are meant to address only one part of the challenge. Further work on reconciliation in workplaces and to understand the contexts in the rural north and south are underway.

Manitobans have an opportunity to create the communities and workplaces in which youth want to live and work and promote the province as a long-term place to live amidst all the affordability concerns in other parts of the country.

Together, we can create a province in which future generations and newcomers to Manitoba can grow and thrive, with the goal of reversing the decades-long trend of out-migration.

Chuck Davidson is the president and CEO of Manitoba Chambers of Commerce. Stephany Laverty is senior policy analyst at Canada West Foundation.