Voters are happy with their lives, yet craving change

Opinion

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This article was published 01/10/2024 (375 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If this poll is correct, then many of us are misreading the political reality throughout the country.

Last week, the Abacus polling company released the results of a large, countrywide poll that examined the current mood of Canadians. The results are surprising.

The poll found that 87 per cent of Canadians experience moments of joy at least a few times each week. Almost 40 per cent experience joy multiple times each day. Those numbers don’t match the widespread perception that everybody is so angry these days.

The poll also revealed that our political perspectives are irrelevant when it comes to the things that bring happiness to our lives. For example, 57 per cent of Conservative Party supporters and 55 per cent of Liberal supporters find joy in “spending time with family and friends.”

While the poll found that Canadians of different age groups experience joy through different activities, the data also revealed that most Canadians of all age groups are finding happiness. Beyond that, two-thirds of respondents said they are satisfied with the amount of joy and happiness in their lives right now.

Again, political affiliation was irrelevant. Canadians may be sharply divided on political issues, but 79 per cent of Conservative supporters and 72 per cent of Liberals supporters are satisfied with the amount of joy and happiness in their lives.

It’s hard to reconcile those numbers with the polling data that we have been seeing for more than a year. For example, an Environics poll conducted in December of last year found that 58 per cent of Canadians were dissatisfied with the direction of the country, with only 33 per cent of older Canadians feeling satisfied.

A Nanos poll conducted at the same time found that 49 per cent of respondents felt that the country was headed in the wrong direction, with just 33 per cent saying it was headed in the right direction.

This past July, another Abacus poll found that “the general mood of the country has become more negative over the last month. Today, only 23 per cent feel the country is headed in the right direction, down from 27 per cent in June and reaching the low point in our tracking.”

How do you square that data with this week’s poll? How can a huge percentage of Canadians feel joy and satisfaction in their lives, yet be so dissatisfied with the country they are living in? How can so many feel their lives are headed in the right direction, yet feel the nation is headed in the wrong direction?

Those are the kinds of questions that keep pundits and politicians awake at night. There are several points to consider.

First, the vast majority of Canadians aren’t nearly as angry as “rage farmer” politicians say or think they are. It is impossible for most voters to feel so much joy in their lives, yet be enraged about the state of their country.

Second, this is an extremely unusual situation, in that happy voters seldom crave change.

They almost always prefer the status quo and, when almost 90 per cent of voters are generally satisfied with their lives, the government’s re-election would ordinarily be a virtual certainty.

The fact that the opposition Conservatives hold a massive lead in the polls may suggest that a large percentage of Canadians may fear their lives could worsen under the current government. They may also feel that the quality of their lives could be even better under a Tory government.

Third, more than a year of polling data tells us voters aren’t really in a “rage for change,” but rather in the mood for a new Liberal leader. It suggests that the Conservatives’ popularity has more to do with Canadians’ dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau than it does with challenges they are experiencing in their respective lives.

All of that suggests that the Liberals may still have a plausible path to re-election. A new leader, unburdened by the current government’s baggage, could give the party a clean slate with all those happy voters. Combine that with tough messaging that details the negative impact a Poilievre government could have on Canadians’ lives (cuts to health-care funding, for example) and the Liberals could still have a fighting chance — but only with a new leader.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross