Ottawa starting to respond to foreign threats

Opinion

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This article was published 19/10/2024 (348 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The recent expulsion of six Indian diplomats over RCMP charges accusing New Delhi of running a violent campaign targeting Sikh activists in Canada was fully justified.

It was also surprisingly swift, and decisive. Ottawa has long struggled to push back against hostile foreign actors.

Indeed, if you cut through partisan noise, the federal government now appears to be taking threats to Canada’s sovereignty somewhat more seriously. It follows years of bizarre, bipartisan failures to heed explicit warnings from experts, businesses and civil society groups — and even our closest allies.

This nascent trend was underscored last month by the government publishing a report detailing Canada’s national intelligence priorities. A joint creation of the ministries of defence, foreign affairs and public safety, the document outlines 14 areas of intelligence work fundamental to upholding Canada’s security and economic well-being.

Among the priorities listed are countering foreign espionage, sabotage and cyber threats, as well as strengthening Arctic defence and Canada’s military effectiveness. The report also highlights the need to protect the population against violent extremism, transnational criminal organizations and the mounting effects of climate change.

The information contained in the report is hardly groundbreaking. But the document is important for a different reason: it’s a clear attempt, in plain language, to demystify Canada’s opaque intelligence networks for the public.

“While the majority of intelligence work must remain classified to protect valuable and sensitive intelligence information, sources, and methods,” the report says, “Canadians deserve to know what we do to protect national security, how we do it, and why it is important.”

Numerous factors indicate the world is sliding into what will be a prolonged era of generalized instability. In response, nations around the world are spending record amounts on their militaries. But due to the nature of the threats and risks, that alone is no longer enough.

The federal government’s future planning agency in May released a report forecasting the most likely societal-altering dynamics that could manifest within the next decade. Topping the list, in the next three to five years, is the inability of a large number of people to distinguish fact from fakery. This is followed by billionaires’ capture of political power — triggering a popular backlash — and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure. By the early 2030s, the report says, ecosystem collapse due to biodiversity loss is considered the top threat, alongside overwhelmed emergency responses and runaway AI.

Enhancing public trust in government and institutions is thus vital. Doing so can develop the collective national resilience necessary to withstand and adapt to emerging global threats — be it wars, pandemics, technological disruption, political radicalization or climate devastation.

This is especially true in liberal democracies that rely on global trade. Analysis by the Bank of Canada suggests more than 60 per cent of Canada’s GDP is linked to trade. Moreover, Canadian incomes are between 15 and 40 per cent higher than they otherwise would be given the open, structured nature of international commerce because of globalization.

While the value of building public trust in government may seem obvious, it’s also incredibly difficult to achieve. However, basic best practices do exist. According to studies by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the primary drivers of trust in democratic governance are reliability, responsiveness, openness, integrity and fairness.

When it comes to national security, this translates to governments being more transparent about risks, both foreign and domestic. This has gradually started to happen at the federal level here in Canada.

Prior to the report on intelligence priorities being released, Parliament in June passed Bill C-70 to create a foreign agent registry. Two months earlier, the government updated its national defence strategy, which commits to renewing Canada’s national security policy every four years. Other legislation in the works intends to strengthen national cybersecurity measures, guard against predatory foreign investments and better scrutinize research partnerships at Canadian universities, especially around cutting-edge technologies.

This is merely the start of what’s required — which is almost certainly a generational project spanning multiple governments, liberal and conservative.

Authoritarian states aspiring to great power status, the COVID-19 pandemic, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, America’s embrace of protectionism, and the looming spectres of climate breakdown and autonomous AI — recent history proves local circumstances and conditions never truly hinge on domestic factors alone anymore.

Canadians will soon head to the polls for a federal election. When choosing which party to support, voters should strongly assess how each one plans on navigating Canada through a much more turbulent global order.

Our quality of life may depend on it.

Kyle Hiebert is a Winnipeg-based political risk analyst and former deputy editor of the Africa Conflict Monitor.