Not far enough, not fast enough

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 29/10/2024 (339 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It’s a plan that falls far short of addressing our rapidly approaching energy crisis, and the clock is ticking.

Late last month, the Manitoba government released its “Manitoba Affordable Energy Plan.” A key element of that strategy is the creation of an Indigenous loan-guarantee program to provide funds to First Nations and Métis organizations for the construction of wind farms capable of generating a total of 600 megawatts of electricity.

The plan will also encourage the development of “green hydrogen” as an energy source, and includes commitments to “unlock” up to 200 megawatts of electricity by refurbishing existing Manitoba Hydro generating stations. There would also be incentives for the purchase of zero-emission vehicles, along with the creation of a charging network for them.

Finally, the plan will end “the first-come, first-served approach for large grid connection to better align with Manitoba’s economic development goals.”

The generation of an additional 600 megawatts of wind-powered electricity for Manitobans may appear to be a significant improvement, but there are a number of factors that dampen expectations, starting with the fact that wind power is notoriously unreliable. Turbines only generate electricity when it is windy enough to make them spin.

Second, an additional 600 megawatts of electricity (even if the supply was reliable) is less than one-tenth of the additional power that will likely be needed. Manitoba currently has an installed generating capacity of 6,600 megawatts, but Manitoba Hydro estimated last year that growing demand for electricity in Manitoba could require 10,000MW to 16,000MW of generating capacity by the early 2040s.

That estimate may actually be too conservative. Former Hydro CEO Jay Grewal revealed earlier this year that the province could require new sources of electricity generation by as early as five years from now.

The amount of electricity being produced here in Manitoba must increase by up to 10,000 megawatts in order to meet our requirements just 15 years from now, and possibly much sooner than that. Wind turbines that only produce power when it’s sufficiently windy can’t be relied on to even partially fill that gap.

Where will the rest of the additional power we need come from? The answer to that important question is nowhere to be found in the government’s new energy plan.

It takes years to design, construct and connect electrical generating facilities, and it could cost many billions of dollars to create the additional generating capacity that is needed here in Manitoba. We don’t have the money to pay for such projects – both the province and Manitoba Hydro are mired in debt – and we’re running out of time to have new generating capacity operational when we will need it.

Further worsening the challenge is the reality that we won’t be able to address the shortage by purchasing surplus electricity from other jurisdictions. That’s because they won’t have any extra power to sell. All jurisdictions across the continent anticipate a dramatic increase in demand, balanced against insufficient generating capacity to satisfy that demand.

They face the same challenge as we do, but they are moving faster to fix it. Ontario, for example, is currently building Canada’s first small modular nuclear reactor and is planning to build four more. It is also studying the construction of another large-scale nuclear reactor, and plans to introduce a range of incentives to help home and business owners produce their own electricity.

British Columbia’s Clean Energy Strategy offers a range of similar incentives, including rooftop solar and battery-storage systems. New Brunswick has made huge investments in wind, solar and energy storage projects, and is also considering the deployment of small modular reactors.

Nova Scotia already has more than 600 megawatts of wind power generation capacity, and is planning to add more. It is also using warm water trapped in “legacy” underground coal mines to provide geothermal energy.

Why isn’t that kind of innovation happening in Manitoba? With the possibility of electricity shortages and rationing becoming more real by the day, where is the sense of urgency to have a solution in place before the crisis hits us?

The plan unveiled last month by the Kinew government doesn’t go far enough fast enough. Manitobans deserve a better, more viable strategy before it’s too late – before the fear of freezing in the dark becomes a genuine possibility.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon.

deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross