Long-serving governments need strong oppositions

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This article was published 30/11/2024 (323 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

In Manitoba, the two main parties take turns running government for extended time periods. There seems to be a natural lifespan for governments of at least a decade.

In all of Manitoba history, there has been only one single term government led by Progressive Conservative (PC) premier Sterling Lyon (1977-1981) who campaigned and governed under the slogan “acute protracted restraint.”

The usual pattern is for governing parties to remain in power for at least two terms. Under Gary Filmon, the PCs went from a minority to two majority governments over the 11-year period from 1988 to 1999.

Similarly, under leader Gary Doer (1999-2009), the NDP won three consecutive majorities before being replaced by Greg Selinger, who won big in the 2011 election before losing big in 2016. In total, the NDP ran the province for nearly 17 years.

Two consequences of this pattern of long-serving governments often go unnoticed.

First, it means that when a party regains power, only a few of its elected MLAs have prior governing experience. For example, in October 2023, Wab Kinew became a first-time premier and only one of his 14 ministers had served in a cabinet.

Second, in opposition there is no direct access to the expertise of the public service, which means that the knowledge and skills to set policy directions and oversee the bureaucracy must be learned on the job. New ministers must work with public servants they do not know. Unlike the U.K., the opposition has no pre-election meetings with senior public servants which support a smoother transition process when governments change.

There are two main parts to the role of the opposition.

The first is to provide a rigorous critique of government as part of what is essentially an ongoing election campaign conducted within the legislature and beyond. The second is to present an agenda of policy ideas different from those of the governing party which signals there is an alternative government in waiting.

The importance of opposition is recognized by the fact that the leader of the official Opposition receives a cabinet-level salary; has extra budget and staff; and has certain procedural rights under the rules of the legislature.

In the current Manitoba context, the weakened status of the PC party has contributed to the largely unscathed status of the NDP government. The PCs are recovering from the legacy of a domineering, ideological leader committed to limited government. Under his successor, the party ran a negative, divisive campaign which disgusted even some of its supporters. It now operates with a smaller caucus, with only a few experienced MLAs, and is led by an interim leader.

There are only two candidates for the job as leader on a permanent basis. It seems likely that Fort Whyte MLA Obby Khan will prevail over the relative outsider Wally Daudrich, a Churchill hotelier, in the April 2025 leadership vote. Either way, the new leader faces numerous challenges to forge the elected MLAs into an effective opposition.

History and present circumstances make it probable that the NDP will govern for at least two terms. This gives the PCs time to clarify what they stand for in terms of an overall approach to governing. Put simply, will a future election platform place more emphasis on the “progressive” or the “conservative” side of the party’s hybrid label?

The PCs have a history of infighting over leadership, so the new leader will have to pay close attention to the internal dynamics of the party. A key step will be the appointment from among his MLAs of a shadow cabinet of designated critics of NDP ministers. If Khan wins, he will not have to face the dilemma of what to do with unsuccessful contenders for the leadership within the existing caucus.

Formation of the shadow cabinet is usually the first chance that a new leader has to signal the direction they want to take their party.

There is no set formula for choosing its members and making the assignments. Experience, communications skills, gender, geography, ideological orientation and stature within the party are among the factors to be considered. Giving all MLAs a sense of belonging to a cohesive team with a shared purpose is crucial.

Without access to the public service, development of a party platform depends on work by shadow ministers, party members with specialized knowledge, consultants, think tanks and stakeholders in various policy fields. Testing platform planks for their soundness and acceptability is a wise move.

The opposition leader must run an efficient and effective office, with experienced staff at the top. The office must keep in touch with caucus and the wider party. It must develop effective communications strategies which engage productively with the media, make use of social media and demonstrate responsiveness to public opinion.

Providing vigorous opposition and preparing to govern can make an important contribution to accountable and responsive governing.

Paul G. Thomas is professor emeritus of Political Studies at the University of Manitoba.