Why would Canada want to throw Mexico under the bus?

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This article was published 02/12/2024 (333 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Is Canada about to break up the gang of “three amigos”? Does it not believe the $2 trillion in trilateral trade under the USMCA trade deal is worth saving?

There’s lots of chatter in Ottawa these days that the governing Liberals are going to ditch the Mexicans and spark up a diplomatic romance with the Americans. What could go wrong with such an impetuous dalliance just to placate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump?

It’s also true that Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who maintains all of the provincial premiers and territorial leaders are on the same page, wants to pour cold water on our relations with Mexico City. Much of this myopic thinking revolves around concerns Mexico is becoming a back door into the North American marketplace for tariff-free Chinese goods (including cheaper Chinese-made EVs in the future).

“We know Mexico is bringing in cheap Chinese parts, slapping ‘made in Mexico’ stickers on, shipping it up through the U.S. and Canada, causing American jobs to be lost, and Canadian jobs. We want fair trade,” Ford recently told reporters in Toronto.

More importantly, Trump has also called for a renegotiation instead of a mere review of the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement in 2026. As a result, some Canadian political and business leaders want Canada to cut a bilateral deal with the U.S. and, in effect, leave the Mexicans to fend for themselves.

While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears to favour maintaining the trilateral USMCA pact, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland is leaning toward freezing out the Mexicans. And her powerful cabinet role, influential voice and past experience at renegotiating the original USMCA with the first Trump administration should not be underestimated.

Does parting company with our long-standing NAFTA/USMCA trade partner actually make any sense though? And how would shafting Mexico advance Canada’s diplomatic, security, economic and people-to-people interests?

As I’ve written previously, Mexico is an especially useful political and strategic ally for Canada. With a new president in Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, this is not the time to be poisoning the bilateral well with the disruptor Trump in high gear.

Mexico is, by far, Canada’s largest trade partner in Latin America and the Caribbean — with a market of 130 million Mexicans with increasing purchasing power. Two-way trade exceeds roughly $55 billion annually and Canadians have substantial direct investments in Mexico. It is also worth remembering that well over 1,000 Canadian companies have set up commercial operations there.

In addition, we should not lose sight of the fact Canada shares important security-related interests with Mexico.

Indeed, the Mexican government is already very helpful in confronting the dastardly cartels and migration flows, combating drug-smuggling and the spread of infectious diseases and even in tackling the climate emergency. There is also the possibility of enhancing joint military exercises and officer exchanges to further solidify bilateral relations.

Let’s not forget that over one million Canadians travel to Mexico every year in search of sun, sand and serenity. There are Canadian citizens who populate various aspects of Mexican society and have built up lifelong personal and business relationships. This is clearly an asset that helps to bolster the overall Canada-Mexico relationship.

Moreover, there are countless Mexicans who come to Canada under various worker programs to do the jobs many Canadians won’t — including in the agricultural, trades and retail sectors, to name just a few. Our universities in Canada are also seeing larger influxes of engaging and hard-working Mexican students.

Officialdom in Ottawa, to say nothing of provincial capitals, would be making a huge mistake by breathlessly severing our multifaceted relations with Mexico. It goes without saying Mexico is a key player in the hemisphere and one that is enormously useful to Canada. And if, as I suspect, a Pierre Poilievre Conservative government will make Latin America a top foreign policy priority, he is going to need Mexico to open up some doors for Canada if it hopes to expand and deepen its relations with the wider region.

More significantly, when you’re a small to middling power like Canada, it is best to have a Mexican friend around the table to neutralize the preponderance of U.S. negotiating power — especially when we’re staring down the barrel of 25 per cent U.S. import tariffs.

We should remember it was Canadian trade officials working with their Mexican counterparts during the USMCA negotiations who served to moderate U.S. trade positions on supply management, trade remedy and Indigenous issues.

So let’s not fall into the trap of letting Trump utilize his divide and conquer approach by deep-sixing a critical Canada-Mexico alliance.

There’s no good reason, then, for Canada to walk away from a trilateral relationship that is not broken beyond repair. If there are issues and concerns with Mexico, China and tariffs, then the three parties can figure it out through discussions under the USMCA or other co-ordinated efforts.

The central point here is not to turf the USMCA, but to work to strengthen it even further.

Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.