Tip for leaders dealing with Trump: keep calm

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This article was published 07/01/2025 (316 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Before he officially takes over the Oval Office, Donald Trump has once again been busy breaking long-standing presidential norms.

Recently, he threatened to somehow take back control of the Panama Canal. Now, it is true that the canal is strategically important to the U.S. and it serves as a critical passageway for American commercial interests (which are responsible for three-quarters of its annual cargo traffic).

The canal was also originally built by the U.S., but two treaties between the two countries were signed in 1977 that turned over its control to Panamanian authorities in 1999. It is also instructive to note that revenues accruing to the Panamanian government each year from the canal amount to roughly US$2.5 billion.

Still, Trump has been complaining about the high transit fees that Panama has been charging (or “ripping off”) American merchant and naval ships. He has also falsely claimed that China is seeking to operate the canal and to deepen its involvement in Central America.

Accordingly, he noted in a Dec. 21 social media post that unless the Panamanian government addresses these matters promptly, “we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, and without question.” The next day, he posted an image of an American flag rising from the waters around the waterway that included the caption: “Welcome to the United States Canal.”

Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, who is, incidentally, known for his pro-U.S. leanings, was quick to respond with his own toughly worded statement. “Every square metre of the Panama Canal and its adjacent zones is part of Panama, and it will continue to be,” he said pointedly.

And just in case Trump missed the central point, Mulino intoned emphatically, “The canal will remain in Panamanian hands as an inalienable patrimony of our nation.” He then went on to add for good measure: “Our country’s sovereignty and independence are not negotiable.”

It is possible that Trump’s ill-considered comments about the canal could open up some opportunities for China to exploit. That would mean that Trump’s mindless efforts to block China’s involvement in the canal, and Panama itself, could actually serve to accelerate them.

Moreover, if Trump does indeed follow through on his threat, he will have succeeded in doing something that few other U.S. presidents before him have managed to do — namely, to unite both right-leaning and leftist governments in Latin America against official Washington. Each nation could be forgiven for thinking: If Panama, then which country’s sovereignty will be violated next? It would also be extremely counterproductive to any Trump plan to craft a successful Latin America policy, and would totally kneecap his Americas-focused Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Foreign policy often involves sending signals and messages to other countries around the world, which partially explains why Trump is making mischief over the canal. His musings are also right out of the populist playbook, where Trump is constantly looking for useful foreign “enemies” to exploit for internal electoral purposes.

He obviously believes that singling out and taunting countries like Panama, Mexico and even Canada is good domestic politics. It reinforces the idea of an unorthodox, irregular and disruptive approach to conducting U.S. diplomacy, and it is clearly “red meat” for members of his MAGA constituency.

In addition, this is about Trump trying to look strong and tough before taking the reins of power in late January. He is also seeking to fortify the perception of a chaotic, impulsive and unpredictable U.S. foreign policy. This, in turn, is supposed to generate pressure on other governments and to intimidate foreign leaders.

It is certainly not clear, though, how exactly Trump would go about regaining control over the canal.

It’s hard to imagine that Trump would invade the country for little or no reason — especially given that the U.S. did so in December 1989 and it resulted in the deaths of thousands of poor Panamanian civilians. Indeed, invading would be a colossal foreign policy misadventure that would taint Trump’s presidency for the next four years.

Maggie Haberman, the accomplished New York Times reporter and Trump chronicler, has said that the U.S. president-elect is a man of very few moves. His latest outburst about the Panama Canal is very reminiscent of the things that Trump said in his first term — that is, building a wall and making the Mexicans pay for it, buying Greenland from the Danes and turning North Korea into a major tourist destination.

The best thing for political leaders and foreign governments to do is to politely refrain from taking the bait, to ignore his “flood the zone” strategy and to not get drawn into a shouting match. And when it comes to Trump, the one thing that you can count on is that he will quickly move on to another distraction.

So the trick is to keep calm, avoid engaging Trump on his terms and don’t get caught up in his word games.

Peter McKenna is a professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.