Looking for stability

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 17/05/2025 (317 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

At the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), we’ve heard from small business owners, politicians and many others, that the past few months have felt like a return to the “pandemic days,” with instability and economic uncertainty on the rise.

According to CFIB’s March Monthly Business Barometer, Canadian small business confidence plummeted to record lows. That’s worse than after 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, or even the darkest days of the pandemic.

At least during the pandemic, there was some sense of structure. Daily briefings from political leaders helped businesses make decisions based on the latest information. Today’s trade disputes offer no such clarity. Policy announcements can come at any moment, disrupt markets and business plans overnight, and then be walked back the next morning or completely contradicted by mid-afternoon.

For small business owners who depend on reliable supply chains, even short-term planning has become a challenge. It’s increasingly difficult for business owners to look six weeks ahead, let alone six months when trying to plan payroll, pay suppliers, or manage inventory.

It’s no wonder why nearly half of Manitoba small companies say they no longer view the U.S. as a reliable trading partner, according to recent CFIB data.

Small businesses are also feeling the strain of Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. While the majority still support these countermeasures in principle, that support is starting to decline.

In the early days of the U.S. tariff threats, 73 per cent of Manitoba small businesses backed Canada’s retaliatory response, according to CFIB data. As of April, this number has dropped to 62 per cent. This shift likely reflects the growing financial pressure many small firms are under, particularly as they struggle to adapt their supply chains or absorb significant cost increases.

And it’s not just tensions with the U.S. that are causing strain. Many Canadian agribusinesses, particularly those in the Prairies, have been even more deeply impacted by Chinese tariffs on canola oil, canola meal, peas, and certain pork, fish, and seafood products.

China is Canada’s second-largest market for agricultural exports, with canola exports alone valued at nearly $5 billion in 2024. The recent imposition of a 100 per cent tariff on Canadian canola has dealt a severe blow to our farmers. The sudden loss of access to such a key market has left producers in limbo. Some have already reported they’ve lost foreign buyers, while others face the risk of unsold product piling up after harvest.

With seeding season underway, Manitoba farmers are being forced to make tough calls about what to plant, and how much. In an industry built on predictability and forward contracts, this level of uncertainty is not just disruptive, it’s destabilizing.

Post-election here in Canada, with federal leadership now settled and some political clarity in place, it’s time for the government to focus on creating a more competitive and stable economic environment for Canada’s small and medium-sized businesses. Whether tariffs remain in place for a few more months or several years, there are steps we can take here at home to strengthen our economic foundation and support small businesses.

Reducing the tax burden must be a priority, starting with eliminating carbon tax legislation and temporarily lowering the federal small business tax rate from nine per cent to zero per cent. Cutting Employment Insurance premiums for smaller employers would also offer much-needed relief and help protect local jobs.

At the provincial level, CFIB has been calling on the Manitoba government to eliminate the Retail Sales Tax (RST) on capital expenditures (i.e. machinery and equipment), to help stimulate growth and expansion at a time when investment decisions may be hindered by economic uncertainty.

The current situation also provides an opportunity for governments to finally lower interprovincial trade barriers. At a time when global trade has become more volatile, allowing goods, services, and labour to move more freely within our own borders would be a meaningful step toward strengthening our domestic economy and improving supply chain resilience.

With the right actions, we can turn the challenges we’re facing into a chance to rebuild a stronger, more resilient local economy. Let’s not waste it.

Brianna Solberg is the CFIB’s director for the Prairies and Northern Canada.