Cubans have obviously seen this (American) movie before

It’s really hard to talk about Cuba today and not include a crucial discussion of the “U.S. factor.” Ever since 1959, official Washington has sought to destabilize the Cuban government because of what it stands for socially — and for its commission of the unforgivable sin of openly defying the U.S. in the region.

Now, it is true that most Cubans have better things to do than to lie awake at night and worry about what U.S. President Donald Trump is going to do next. They have worries and serious concerns that are much closer to home — namely, dealing with life’s many daily challenges in Cuba.

I was anxious, though, to ask just about anyone whom I could find during my early May visit to Cuba about the impact of the new Trump administration. Not surprisingly, there was no shortage of opinions. But their individual responses were generally circumspect, matter-of-fact and almost nonchalant.

It is important to remember that during his first term as president, Trump implemented over 240 punitive measures against the Cuban government.

That level of obsession and vengefulness has continued over the course of his first 100 days in office of Trump’s second term. Within his first week, he had signed an executive order placing Cuba back on the U.S. State Department’s list of countries — after former U.S. president Joe Biden had removed Cuba from that list during his last week in power — allegedly sponsoring acts of terrorism in the world.

One Cuban friend was incredulous and animated about this specific move by Trump. As he said to me pointedly on a trip into Havana: “Take a look around. Does this look like a people and a country that would have anything to do with international terrorism? It’s crazy.”

Another early Trump measure was to cancel a humanitarian parole program for Cubans (and others) seeking to enter the U.S. through legal channels. His White House is doing everything humanly possible, notwithstanding the 1966 Cuban Adjustment Act which is supposed to facilitate Cuban migration, to keep Cubans from seeking a better life in America.

Moreover, there are plenty of rumours flying around Washington that Trump is actively contemplating imposing a comprehensive travel ban on Cubans seeking to enter the U.S. He has already announced the imposition of travel visa restrictions on governments (and their officials) that utilize much-needed health-care services from Cuban doctors and other medical professionals (known widely as Cuban medical internationalism or doctor diplomacy).

There is even talk of Trump slashing remittance payments/monies to the island from Cuban-Americans, cracking down on U.S. companies that are doing business with private sector entities in Cuba and further tightening the U.S. economic blockade of the island.

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Trump sought to cut off as much of Cuba’s oil imports, such as they are, as he can. Likely targets for U.S. economic sanctions would be oil-producing countries such as Venezuela, Algeria and Angola — all loyal friends of Cuba. I could also easily see Trump approaching/pressuring Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian to halt all of their energy supplies to Cuba.

With Cuba barely able to provide 30 per cent of its own petroleum needs, and non-renewable sources in their infancy, such a move would be devastating to the island’s people. It would have profound implications for the country’s industrial base, its agricultural sector and daily living conditions.

Another Cuban who spoke with me fully expected that things would get worse under Trump. But he, too, was largely unfazed about the whole matter. “Trump is going to do what he wants to do. We can’t change that,” he said calmly.

Significantly, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has not tried to hide the fact that he is hellbent on making life even more difficult for the Cuban people. He is already on record as saying that he is determined to execute “a tough Cuba policy.” His central objective, of course, is to remove the Cuban government from power through whatever means possible.

His most recent action was to blacklist Havana by claiming that Cuba has not fully co-operated with U.S. counterterrorism efforts in 2024. (It is worth noting that the previous Biden White House had certified in May 2024 that Cuba was co-operating with the U.S. on anti-terrorism activities.) By doing so, the U.S. is seeking to delegitimize the Cuban government and to deter other countries from engaging diplomatically and economically with Cuba.

One Cuban hotel worker had already resigned himself to the view that “we’re just going to have to wait things out for four years.” Besides, he went on to add, “we’ve done it before.”

One other Cuban acquaintance concluded the following: “Trump has threatened to make things worse. But he can’t make things any worse than they are now. What more can he do? He can’t hurt us anymore.”

I only wish that were true.

Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.