Trying to find sense in the nonsensical

Opinion

What does Trump want?

Figuring out U.S. President Donald Trump is a full-time job. In this joyless season of trade talks with his administration, Canadians have had no shortage of role models to choose from in getting a deal.

From “elbows up” (Prime Minister Carney), to “elbows down” (Alberta Premier Danielle Smith), to enticement (Britain’s royal visit invitation), to accommodation (Mexico’s military deployment on their U.S. border to interdict drugs and migrants), to flattery (NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte calling Trump “Daddy”). Nothing seems to work, at least for long. Negotiating with Trump is like nailing Jello to the wall. It seems firm enough but never sticks.

Make America Great Again (MAGA) — his signature political philosophy — offers little guidance. It is a reservoir of resentments, a toxic tonic of grievance and vengeance shaken, not stirred, by the president’s regular forays of fantastical diversions, U-turns, and just plain lies. He is at once both the lead missionary and faithful servant of MAGA.

Simply put, Trump’s political identity has no fixed address to serve as a rational basis for negotiation. But he does have fixed ideas. An idée fixe in politics and life is an obsession. A dominating idea or desire that animates the central core of someone’s personality and actions. This gets us closer to understanding Trump and what Canada — and the world — is up against.

Trump has had a fixed idea about tariffs and trade deficits for decades. That idea is the U.S. is getting “ripped off” by free trade, losing hundreds of millions of dollars in trade deficits (now billions) and blocked from doing business in other countries.

He said this back in the late 1980s and ‘90s. He’s still saying it. So, when Carney mused out loud last week that “there’s not a lot of evidence right now” that the U.S. will agree to any trade deal without tariffs, this should be disappointing but not surprising. Stepping back from one’s obsessions is no easy task, personally in life or professionally especially in politics, with its fishbowl lifestyle.

Trump’s fixed idea about tariffs sits alongside his only other economic fixed idea: tax cuts. His “One Big Beautiful Bill,” signed into law on their Independence Day, legislated the biggest tax cuts in American history; many aimed at business and rich Americans. Trump speaks in superlatives, all CAPS, to convey that everything he says or does is uber-important.

This is the window into three other idées fixes that drove him to run and win a second presidential election (no, the one he lost was not stolen). And that visibly govern his behaviour in the White House today.

First, to make money for him and his family by monetizing the office of president of the United States. Forbes estimated his family’s net worth in March this year was US$1.2 billion higher than a year ago. From real estate to crypto currency to Trump-branded merch, he is raking it in.

Second, punish enemies and detractors at every turn using the power of government to bring lawsuits, dismantle agencies, fire independent officials, make financial threats, and financially sanction universities and institutions with which he disagrees.

Third, keep himself as the centre of attention and power. “I, alone, can fix it”, Trump proclaimed in 2016 as he accepted the Republican nomination for the first time. Every Oval Office “freak-out” with foreign leaders, or late-night social media post, shows he has not wavered in this obsession with the personal.

This speaks to Canada’s dilemma. Our idée fixe is that, in the end, Trump will capitulate to reason and give Canada the free trade deal we deserve. That we can somehow convince Trump to ignore his idees fixes and negotiate a tariff-free deal because we’ve done so in the past and it is so obviously the right thing. “Canada, alone, can have a deal,” we seem to say to ourselves, ignoring the trade tumult around us.

Despite the charge he is now “elbows down,” the prime minister is signalling reality rather than retreat. Visiting the White House in May, Carney said both Canada and the U.S. were in the process of “redefining that relationship of working together.” There is no “back to what it was” in that construct.

As for Trump? His happy place is winning. But he never seems happy about it. Obsessions are like that. They never let go.

Restless, Trump needs and wants more.

David McLaughlin is a former clerk of the executive council and cabinet secretary in the Manitoba government.