The path to new purpose for conservatives

Opinion

The lazy days of an August summer are upon us. Unless you’re a conservative.

If so, you are uncharacteristically unnerved. Having lost a provincial byelection in Quebec last week in a seat they hold federally, they are eying two more. A federal byelection on Monday in Battle River-Crowfoot, Alta. and a provincial one two weeks later in Spruce Woods, Man. Two reliable, deep blue seats are being watched as harbingers of those parties’ future political fortunes.

Federal Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre will not lose his bid to regain a seat in the House of Commons in the safest CPC seat in the country. His predecessor racked up 83 per cent of the vote in the April election. It’s why he chose this seat – as sure a thing as you can get in politics – to smooth his way back into Parliament after his stunning loss in his long-held Carleton, Ont. seat.

It is unlikely, but not impossible, that the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba will lose its own safe seat in rural Manitoba. Even in the depths of the electoral meltdown wrought by former premier Heather Stefanson two years ago, their candidate won 62 per cent of the vote.

Margins matter in politics. Which is why the margin of victory – or loss – will be watched first in both these byelections. In usual times, neither byelection would matter a whit. But these are unusual times for both parties. They are running against themselves as much as against their governing opponents who are proving durably popular and resilient to electoral challenge. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Wab Kinew would win re-election in a cakewalk right now.

Which raises a big question for each conservative party – who are you?

Votes measure a party’s appeal. But relevance to voters is what drives that appeal. These two conservative parties are relevant to a declining minority of voters. Federal Conservatives showed up late to the most important issue on voters’ minds – Trump – in the last election, and they paid the price. They’ve since seen their policies snatched and repackaged by a newly centrist federal Liberal government. And the vituperative temper and tone they are used to is out-of-step for today’s times.

Manitoba Progressive Conservatives, meanwhile, are reeling from a deeper election loss than they understand. The NDP government didn’t need to resort to stealing PC policies to boost their appeal. Offering a moderate, pragmatic government with a positive face to voters has done the trick. The PCs have since chosen a friendly-face leader too. But this will not paper over profound fissures in the party’s brand and appeal, as the fractured leadership results showed with the losing candidate winning more votes but losing on constituency points. Plus, the party continues to fight a rearguard battle against their egregious leadership behaviour both during the campaign and after, during transition. Squaring their debit account with voters will not occur until they square their own account with themselves.

In truth, both parties are warring inside. They may decry identity politics, but each is struggling with identifying what kind of conservative they really are. Poilievre is moving to the left, embracing nationalist and union doctrines once solely propagated by the NDP. In the past two weeks, he came out in favour of the Air Canada flight attendant union’s demands and called for the rescinding of a contract given to a Chinese firm by B.C. Ferries to build four new ferries even though that would cost more and take longer.

While this may be chalked up as fishing for loose left-wing votes from a flatlining federal NDP, the conservative response to Maritime provincial governments banning access to forests and woods to try to prevent more wildfires, shows the real conservative schism. A divide between libertarian populism versus conservative communitarianism.

Community has long been a part of conservative thought and ideals. Former federal PC leader and prime minister Joe Clark once called Canada “a community of communities.” The famously influential American conservative, Russell Kirk, set out 10 conservative principles including this one: “conservatives uphold voluntary community, quite as they oppose involuntary collectivism.” He described this as flowing from local community decision-making. So long as these decisions are “… kept local and are marked by the general agreement of those affected, they constitute healthy community.” And are conservative.

In Canada, that sounds a lot like federalism. But libertarian populists, hyperventilated by COVID pandemic rules and mandates, argue local decisions taken by local authorities are really an unabashed overreach by governments to trample individual rights. It is more than a little ironic when libertarian populism takes on the guise of centralizing authoritarianism in the name of protecting individual liberties.

Classic conservatives seek balance in society. They are prudent, recognizing the value of permanence in key institutions and values, while recognizing and reconciling needed societal change. Conservatives understand there exists a public good. There is a greater purpose that transcends the individual even while promoting freedom for the individual to live and achieve as they see fit. Community, based on family, fits into this notion nicely.

If conservative parties wish to regain purpose and trust with voters, they need to confront and expel the demon of libertarian populism, ravaging their parties from the inside out.

David McLaughlin is a former clerk of the executive council and cabinet secretary in the Manitoba government.