Manitoba and Canada’s wildfire response

In a world where wars are fought over resources and climate change destabilizes nations, it is not alarmist to say that water is now a matter of national security.

Canada is blessed with abundant freshwater, but as the firestorms of 2025 have reminded us, abundance does not guarantee safety.

This summer, Manitoba has endured one of the worst wildfire seasons in memory. Thousands of hectares have burned in the Interlake and northern forests. Winnipeg’s skies filled with smoke in July, echoing the crisis that paralyzed much of Canada in 2023, when fires spread across the continent. The province has declared two wildfire emergencies in the summer of 2025, forcing thousands of Manitobans from their homes and leaving tens of thousands more to suffer through weeks of choking smoke.

These disasters are not anomalies. They are the predictable result of a warming climate, where hotter, drier summers turn forests into tinderboxes. Using NASA data, Science Advances reported in July 2025 that “unprecedented continental drying” is shrinking freshwater availability and creating mega-dry regions across the Western Hemisphere.

The lesson is stark: adaptation is no longer optional — it is the key to survival. And adaptation begins with understanding the water-fire nexus: how climate change is affecting the earth’s water cycle by reducing water storage, leading to extreme dryness which creates accelerating wildfire risk. In turn, wildfires destroy forests, destabilize soils, erode watersheds, and pollute streams with ash. Downstream, this means degraded drinking water, higher treatment costs, and risks to fish and agriculture. Fire is no longer just about trees — it is about the security of our water.

Here Manitoba has a unique advantage. Winnipeg is home to both the Canada Water Agency (CWA) and the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC). One manages water science and policy, the other co-ordinates wildfire response across the provinces. Together, they create an extraordinary opportunity: Winnipeg can be the country’s innovation hub for managing the water-fire nexus in a time of climate emergency.

But vision must be matched by action. And one immediate step is obvious: Canada must dramatically expand its water bomber capacity.

Our fleet is too old, too small, and too fragmented. In 2023, Canada had fewer than 70 large water bombers, some built more than half a century ago. “We could use every water bomber we can get our hands on,” Premier Wab Kinew said recently. Manitoba has already put down an $80-million deposit on three new aircraft. Ontario has ordered six more. But none will arrive until 2031 because European purchases of DeHavilland water bombers already fill the order book. That is not a national security plan — it is a gamble.

The federal government should pool provincial orders, provide a financial backstop, if necessary, assess what capacity is required and move quickly to develop a National Water Bomber Strategy to complement provincial efforts, ensuring Canada has the aircraft, pilots, and infrastructure to meet the scale of the threat. And Winnipeg should be at its heart.

This city has the aerospace expertise. From StandardAero’s global aircraft maintenance to Magellan’s advanced manufacturing, Winnipeg is already central to aviation. While current assembly lines are in Calgary, demand for training, parts manufacturing, and maintenance will surge. Winnipeg can supply all of it.

Building new water bombers in Canada and upgrading the existing fleet would not only protect communities — it would create jobs, strengthen supply chains, and position the country as a leader in climate adaptation technology. Other jurisdictions, from California to Greece to Australia, desperately need more water bombers. A Canadian program could serve both domestic security and international markets. This is the kind of nation-building project Prime Minister Carney has promised.

The fires of 2025 have shown us that climate change is not a distant theory — it is a present emergency. Water is our most critical defense against fire, and fire is one of the greatest threats to our water. With its institutions, expertise, and industry, Winnipeg has the chance to lead Canada in forging the water-fire security nexus of the future.

Because in the end, water is not just life — it is security. And in a burning world, security depends on planes carrying water in our skies.

Thomas S. Axworthy is public policy chair at Massey College and a member of the Forum for Leadership on Water.