Preparing for a looming cancer crisis

Opinion

New cancer cases could rise by more than 60 per cent over the next 25 years, according to a study released last week by The Lancet medical journal.

The study forecasts that new cases will surge from 19 million worldwide last year to 30.5 million annually by 2050. Worse still, the death total is predicted to increase by almost 75 per cent, from 10.4 million to almost 19 million each year. More than half of those new cases, and two-thirds of deaths, will occur in low-and middle-income nations.

In Canada and other higher-income nations, the number of new cancer cases and deaths are also predicted to continue increasing, largely due to our aging population, and the fact that citizens in those nations are living longer.

Despite the expected increases in those nations, however, cancer death rates are actually falling. Over the past 25 years, cancer rates have actually declined by nine per cent per 100,000 persons, while the cancer death rate has plunged by 29 per cent.

That is largely due to early diagnosis and treatment of cancers at earlier stages, but the sobering reality is that the numbers of cancer cases and deaths in Canada have steadily increased over the past several years, and have almost doubled since 1990.

The findings in the Lancet study echo the conclusions of a World Health Organization report from February of last year, which projected that new cancer cases would jump to 35 million annually by 2050, and that cancer death rates would almost double among low-and middle-income nations.

The two reports should be viewed as a loud call to action, but are governments taking the necessary steps to ensure their respective health-care systems are ready for the increase in cases that is already occurring, and expected to worsen in severity?

If past behaviour is a predictor of future behaviour, Manitobans have reason to be concerned. More than a decade ago we were warned of an expected rise in cancer cases in the province, yet we are arguably less prepared now then we were then.

Last December, Doctors Manitoba called for an independent investigation into operations at CancerCare Manitoba after a review into the health-care agency revealed a “high level of moral distress” among doctors working there.

The review found “serious concerns from a majority of physicians, concerns that require urgent attention to disrupt a workplace culture described by many physicians as toxic … An over-arching sense of powerlessness and diminishing hope was evident in the submissions received.”

Weeks later, CancerCare’s CEO, Dr. Sri Navaratnam, said she would be leaving the agency. On the same day she announced her resignation, however, she fired Jim Slater, CancerCare’s former chief of research administration and operations.

That action caused a source close to CancerCare to tell the Free Press that “People are worried Jim’s departure is part of a final retribution tour from the outgoing CEO, and doctors and others are being warned to keep their heads down.”

Given the toxic turmoil at the agency, there is ample reason to be concerned about CancerCare’s ability to respond to the cancer tsunami on the horizon.

There is a worldwide shortage of doctors, and a fierce global competition to hire cancer specialists. How does an agency with a recent history of such discord compete to attract, let alone retain, the doctors and other health care professionals needed to address the surge in cancer cases?

That’s a question for Premier Wab Kinew and Health Minister Uzoma Asagwara, but there are encouraging signs.

In June, Kinew confirmed that the long-awaited CancerCare centre for cancer research and treatment will begin construction next year, at a cost of up to $1 billion. Last month, it was announced that Dr. Kent Stobart would be returning to CancerCare as its new CEO.

The agency must continue working to repair the culture within its walls and morale among its staff, but the hiring of Dr. Stobart, combined with confirmation that construction of the new facility will soon begin, are two steps in the right direction.

Many more positive steps are required, however, in order to prepare the province for the looming cancer crisis. The lives of thousands of Manitobans depend on it, and the clock is ticking.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross