The bitter truth found by advertising

Canada’s trade talks with the United States need to come with a warning sign: “Not as advertised”.

Elbows-up retaliatory tariffs? Not now. A comprehensive new “economic and security relationship” between the two countries? Not in the cards. Canada about to become President Donald Trump’s cherished 51st state? Not serious. A June announcement of a deal within 30 days? Not a chance. A return to pre-Trump tariff-free days? Never. A future for Canada’s auto sector? Not if the U.S. can help it.

Canadians are realizing that nothing about resolving the trade and tariff relationship with the U.S. has been as advertised. What we were told would happen, could happen, hasn’t happened. The chaos and cacophony of the past week prove it. All brought to you by Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s provocative ad, featuring dead president Ronald Reagan’s free trade resurrection, followed by a very much alive President Donald Trump’s temper tantrum terminating negotiations.

Ontario’s ad showed Reagan extolling the virtues of free trade without tariffs. Trump called it “FAKE,” saying Reagan “loved” tariffs. Piqued, he stopped trade talks with us. The Ronald Reagan Institute said it “misrepresented” Reagan’s views, demanding an apology. Trump administration officials stepped up, variously blaming the ad for disrespecting Reagan and Trump; Ford for disrespecting the U.S.; or Canada’s negotiating team for disrespecting American interests. “Canada had it coming,” basically, is the White House position.

This “blame Canada” game is being played out on both sides of the border.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre blames the PM for having “approved” Ontario’s ad and failing to secure a deal with Trump; Carney was “looking for someone to blame,” he said. The Business Council of Canada head indirectly blamed Ford and Carney together, saying “in a trade war you need one general, not 13 of them.” U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra blamed Ford, swearing in public at Ontario’s trade representative for the ad.

So, what’s the truth? The episode has revealed three uncomfortable truths for Canada.

The most important is that the Republican consensus on free trade led by Reagan is gone. Trump’s MAGA protectionist worldview of tariffs is the official position of his party and country. Ontario’s ad tried to tickle a nostalgia that no longer exists in Trump’s party. Tariffs are here to stay.

The second uncomfortable truth is that the U.S. is wielding tariffs not to rectify or even out unfair trade practices but to assert economic hegemony over its trading partner. Mutually beneficial prosperity is not the goal. American dominance is.

That truth was revealed by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick at a recent conference when he baldly stated that Canada should “come second” to the U.S. when it comes to the auto sector. They would buy auto parts from Canada, “but that’s about it.”

The third uncomfortable truth is that traditional negotiating approaches Canada has relied upon in the past will not work with Trump. Canada offered concessions by scrapping the digital services tax, lifting counter-tariffs, and pledging higher defence spending. Meant to set the table for fruitful if tough negotiations, Trump simply upended the table in a late-night rant. If the U.S. thought it was close to a deal it liked, it wouldn’t have done this. Elbows-up at the negotiating table narrows the prospect of a deal Trump will accept, not enhances it.

This leads to an emerging uncomfortable truth: there is no deal to be had on Trump’s terms that Carney could accept. If Trump wants our auto sector to stop making cars or demands permanent high tariffs and duties on steel, lumber and aluminum, can any prime minister sign onto this? Yet, no relief from current tariffs means our already weakening economy will weaken further.

Can America remain an economic ally or will it become an economic adversary? This question will roil Canadian politics ahead. The groundwork for this debate is already being laid. Liberals say our past economic relationship with the U.S. is “over,” we need to secure other world markets, and that, in Carney’s words, “no deal is better than a bad deal.” Conservatives are arguing the opposite case: the U.S. will remain our most important trading partner, a deal can be had, that a failure to negotiate successfully is the prime minister’s personal fault.

As always, there are truths on both sides. America will remain Canada’s most important economic partner in value for years to come. But there is no turning the clock back to “before Trump,” convincing him to see Canada the benign way past presidents did. He obsesses about hemispheric competition with China and Russia, not economic cooperation with Canada. That is the prism in which he views where our country fits.

The inescapable fact is that while nothing has yet changed since Mark Carney became prime minister, everything has changed since Donald Trump became president. It just took an ad to remind us there are many truths in advertising.

David McLaughlin is a former clerk of the executive council and cabinet secretary in the Manitoba government.