Driving towards net-zero

Our province has set its sights on net-zero emissions by 2050. Manitoba’s Path to Net Zero provides a strong start: a clear target, guiding principles and a broad menu of potential actions. But specific action plans were deferred to this spring, leading some to question the sincerity of the commitment.

Indeed, with only 24 years left, Manitoba needs more than a list of projects. It needs durable drivers — mandates, regulations, empowered planning and delivery, innovation and smart economics — that steer every major energy decision toward a just, affordable, low-carbon future.

Right now, those drivers are missing. Here is a checklist (with completion dates) of those that need to be created for the energy sector.

First, regulation: Action 1 (2026): Modernize governing legislation for Manitoba Hydro, Efficiency Manitoba and the Public Utilities Board (PUB) to align mandates with net zero. Letters from a minister are not substitutes for legal mandates adjudicated before the PUB.

Action 2 (2026): Cease extensions of gas supply to new developments. Stop building tomorrow’s stranded assets. Building new is the least-cost time for homeowner and utility to transition off gas and Efficiency Manitoba provides generous support.

Action 3 (2026): Update building and energy codes and standards to support efficiency, electrification and EV readiness as promised in Manitoba’s Affordable Energy Plan.

Next, planning and delivery, Action 4 (2026): Complete Manitoba Hydro’s Integrated Resource Plan by examining alternative gas-to-clean-heat pathways with the same rigour applied to electric planning.

Action 5 (2026): Define a larger role, with resources, for Efficiency Manitoba to plan and deliver an efficient clean-energy transition, including transportation.

As well, geothermal innovation: Ground-source heat pumps are a marvellous technology for gathering useful heat from the earth. A ground-source heat pump can replace about three-quarters of the electricity needed to heat a building, freeing power to the grid for other uses.

Efficiency Manitoba has initiated a major ramp-up of ground-source heat pump installations, but we lack current studies of how modern, well-designed systems perform in Manitoba. Manitoba Hydro uses old numbers that undervalue the savings geothermal can deliver.

Action 6 (2026 and beyond): Seize this opportunity to build a living database of ground-source heat pump performance — tracking design, hydrogeology, installation costs and continuous monitoring data.

Action 7 (2027 and beyond): File annual reports analyzing the performance of Manitoba’s growing ground-source heat pump fleet. The data should drive continuous improvement as Efficiency Manitoba identifies opportunities for cost control, performance enhancement and scaling.

Action 8 (2027 and beyond): Leverage data, reporting and ground-source heat pump ramp-up to position Manitoba as a global centre of excellence in cold climate geothermal research and innovation.

Then, there’s smart economics.

Seven-generation thinking doesn’t sell out the future to make things cheap in the present. But people and communities must also thrive today. Balancing human needs over time requires judicious, informed and principled planning that pursues least-cost pathways to the future we want. Economic wisdom and energy innovation can keep energy affordable while advancing a just, green future.

Energy affordability is a real issue for some, but broad rate freezes weaken Manitoba Hydro just when we need it to do more. Targeted support — efficiency and fuel-switching programs, and income-based bill assistance — helps those who need it most without undermining the utility’s financial health.

Action 9 (ongoing): Address energy affordability through targeted support and rely on judicious, evidence-based processes guided by mandates and policies to set utility rates.

(Non) Action 10 (ongoing): Avoid actions that encourage fossil fuel consumption or that create avoidable long-term costs. For example, avoiding new gas infrastructure is also an affordability measure. Every kilometre of pipe installed today becomes a future liability paid for by tomorrow’s ratepayers.

These 10 actions will advance the clean energy transition. But over a third of today’s emissions arise from non-energy sources like agriculture and landfills. Their reduction will require additional drivers. Of course, a multitude of further actions and projects will arise from these. Will Manitoba’s Path to Net Zero fulfil its promise? It is more likely to do so if early actions create durable drivers to propel us down the path.

Peter Miller is a longtime energy policy adviser, former PUB intervenor and owner of a new ground-source heat pump system.