The wrong spin for Manitoba’s budget

PREMIER Wab Kinew is a top-notch communicator among Canadian politicians. Given that fact, it is surprising that his government is doing such a poor job of communicating a compelling narrative regarding Budget 2026.

The spin has focused mostly on minor and “gimmicky” items such as free bus fare for kids and making prepared meals and junk food cheaper at grocery stores. That’s a mistake, given the availability of a more persuasive narrative.

Such an approach would focus on the argument that, if not for factors well beyond the control of the government, they would be well on their way to achieving a balanced budget by next year, as the NDP has promised.

The argument is composed of two components. First, all provinces are struggling to limit the harmful impacts of the erratic conduct of the Trump administration. The constant cascade of tariffs and other threats has hurt economic activity in Manitoba and the tax revenues the province would otherwise be earning, just as it has harmed every other province.

Second, the adverse economic effects of climate change have arguably hit Manitoba harder than any other province. We’re paying a big price for bad environmental practices elsewhere in the world, adding hundreds of millions of dollars to the province’s deficits and debt.

The numbers support that argument, showing that the government incurred emergency expenses of $741 million between the 2020-21 and 2024-25 fiscal years, more than half of which were unbudgeted. For the current 2025-26 fiscal year that ends today, the government estimates emergency costs will amount to $383 million, almost entirely due to last summer’s severe wildfire season. That’s $333 million more than had been budgeted for in the 2025-26 budget.

Add it up and emergency expenditures for floods and wildfire — events any government is largely powerless to prevent — total more than $1.1 billion, all of which is added to the province’s debt burden.

That’s bad, but climate change has had an even more severe impact on Manitoba Hydro and, consequently, on Manitoba’s finances. In four of the five past fiscal years, low water levels have caused the utility to incur losses totalling $985 million and, because it was expected to earn profits during each of those years, those losses have added almost $2 billion to the budget deficits for those years.

Specifically, Hydro’s projected loss of $502 million for the fiscal year that ends today — compared to what was an expected profit of $220 million — comprises $722 million of the projected $1.67-billion deficit.

If not for the dry conditions last spring and summer, the projected deficit for the current 2025-26 fiscal year would be $1.055 billion lower, at just $611 million. That is $181 million lower than the $749-million deficit that was projected in Budget 2025.

In other words, if we had received a normal amount of rain, the government would be almost $200 million closer to balancing the budget than was expected a year ago. Those numbers could form the foundation for a persuasive narrative that the government is actually doing a good job of managing the province’s finances at such an economically turbulent time.

The argument would be further strengthened by the fact that most government departments are expected to finish the current fiscal year at or below their respective budget amounts. If that spending discipline continues, and if we receive a normal amount of precipitation this spring and summer, there is a realistic possibility the deficit for the 2026-27 fiscal year ends up even lower than the $498 million shortfall projected in Budget 2026.

Those are two big “ifs,” however, and that brings us back to what Kinew, Finance Minister Adrien Sala and their NDP colleagues should be telling the public.

They should say the government is making steady, if not remarkable, progress toward delivering a balanced budget under challenging economic conditions, but that climate changes poses a growing threat to the province’s rivers, forests, farmers, finances and, in particular, the viability of Manitoba Hydro.

Such a narrative would be viewed as credible by much of the public, and as an important call to action in the fight against climate change. It’s a mystery why the government is not making that argument.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon.

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