Sudan’s civil war nears grim milestone

As fresh chaos unfolds in the Middle East, Ukraine and its allies fear it will detract from dealing with Russia’s aggression in eastern Europe. Sudan doesn’t face that problem. The African country’s brutal civil war — about to enter its fourth year — has never been a global priority at all.

Still, what began in April 2023 as a violent falling out between competing warlords has dragged the nation into the abyss. The world’s worst humanitarian crisis continues there unabated. A dense web of local militias and foreign interests has become entrenched. And all of this is further destabilizing the already fragile Horn of Africa region as well.

Sadly, Sudan’s people shouldn’t expect serious help to arrive any time soon.

Fierce clashes erupted three years ago as a bitter power struggle exploded between Sudan’s army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the leader of the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, General Mohamed Hamdan (Hemedti) Dagalo.

The two aspiring strongmen once benefited from a partnership of convenience. After a popular revolution in 2019 toppled longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir, both generals sat atop Sudan’s transitional state. But just before an agreement with Sudan’s pro-democracy movement kicked in — paving the path toward elections — they turned their guns on each other.

Burhan and Hemedti surely understood what awaited them if they handed authority to a civilian-led government. Most likely, a loss of political power and heightened scrutiny of their vast economic networks and ill-gotten assets. Charges of war crimes given their previous roles propping up the abusive Bashir regime were possible.

The army, under Burhan, initially holed up in northeast Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast for two years before gradually retaking territory in 2025, including the capital Khartoum last May. The RSF meanwhile has seized control over vast southern and western lands, including most of Darfur — an area roughly the size of France.

The entire nation has been traumatized in the process.

At least 12 million people are displaced and more than half the population is grappling with extreme hunger. Public infrastructure, from hospitals and schools to roads and utilities, lies in ruins. The conflict’s perpetrators are both accused of systemic human rights abuses and using mass starvation and gender-based violence as weapons of war.

UN investigators in February alleged the RSF was committing acts of genocide against Darfur’s non-Arab communities. In response, Canada’s foreign minister signed a joint statement with dozens of European diplomats demanding combatants respect humanitarian law, protect aid workers and give safe passage for asylum seekers.

“Those responsible for international crimes (must) be brought to justice,” the statement read. Yet while such sentiment is important, stern letters from Western capitals is doing nothing to change facts on the ground.

That’s because foreign actors are fuelling the war by pouring money and weapons into the country, hoping to back the eventual winning side. At stake is access to Sudan’s bounty of gold, mineral deposits and fertile agricultural land. Also, the use of ports along strategically vital Red Sea coastline.

Egypt, Iran, Saudia Arabia, Turkey and Qatar are supporting Burhan and the army.

By contrast, media investigations point to the United Arab Emirates backing the RSF. This includes building secret training camps for the group’s fighters across the border in Ethiopia. In February 2024, Kenya’s government also provided safe haven to RSF officials to sign a charter to establish their own parallel Sudanese government.

China and Russia are hedging their bets by playing both sides.

“The most nihilistic conflict on Earth” — that’s what Pulitzer-prize winning journalist Anne Applebaum wrote last year after multiple reporting trips to the country. “The liberal world order has already ended in Sudan and there isn’t anything to replace it.”

“In a war that is testing conflict responses, multilateralism is not faring well,” echoed researcher Maram Mahdi in a recent analysis for the Institute for Security Studies, a pan-African think tank. “Sanctions have had little impact on the warring parties, who create new or more covert supply chains.”

Various ongoing but fragmented dialogue initiatives continue to sputter. The continent’s main intergovernmental body, the African Union, seems bizarrely missing in action as well. Germany is hosting the next major peace conference in Berlin on April 15 — the conflict’s three-year anniversary.

“As the global multilateral system crumbles,” warns Mahdi, “Sudan is another test case that exposes its paralysis.”

If collective resolution efforts remain limited to a trickle of aid, occasional joint statements, some shuttle diplomacy and a handful of sanctions, Sudan faces many grim anniversaries to come.

Kyle Volpi Hiebert is a Montreal-based political risk analyst focused on globalization, conflict and emerging technologies.