Planning for an electric future — now

Manitoba generates almost all of its electricity from renewable sources, mostly hydroelectric with a small contribution from wind turbines, and a natural gas-fired plant in Brandon used for peaking and emergencies.

The shift away from fossil fuels to an electrified economy — a move on hold due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s re-crowning of king oil — will advantage those who strongly invest in renewables.

It therefore astonished and dismayed many when Manitoba Hydro’s 2025 Integrated Resource Management Plan (IRMP) proposed as one of several measures to meet projected demand increases, to build some 750 MW of natural gas fired generating capacity.

However, before rushing to judgment, one should carefully scrutinize the plan, quite readable and clear in its exposition of the assumptions and reasoning upon which it is based. It marks a degree of transparency not often associated with the corporation.

Hydro is a Crown corporation established by statute with a mandate to deliver safe, reliable and affordable energy services to Manitobans. Under a narrow interpretation of the mandate and a limited time horizon, the plan makes sense and the increased reliance on thermal generation is less offensive than it first appears. The plan does get Hydro back into the wind energy game and strongly promotes energy conservation.

Hydro operates with a foot in two worlds; free to operate as would a private corporation in most respects, but “answerable” to the Manitoba legislature and subject to regulatory scrutiny by the Public Utilities Board. Government appoints a board of directors who provide overall direction and broad oversight to the corporation and who report annually to the legislature, through a designated minister of cabinet.

There is discretion in how the Crown corporation model is operationalized; and this has varied over the years from the board being given wide discretion only bound by broad general government policy, to a quite hands-on approach by the government. The last formal public dialogue on this issue was the 1979 Tritschler Inquiry; it has received virtually no public scrutiny since.

The board, bound by a clear but narrow mandate in legislation and the now obligatory premier’s “mandate letter” has chosen to — or has been directed to — be very careful not to impinge on policy terrain lying outside of its narrow mandate. And there’s nothing wrong with that.

And yet, Manitoba’s largest corporation employs an enormous pool of energy expertise, dwarfing what might be available in the provincial bureaucracy.

While we need not be too critical about what’s in the IRMP, we might turn a jaundiced eye to what’s not. It contains no direct mention of climate change; no forecast of its accelerating effects and how that will impact the province’s energy environment.

Nothing about both the necessity for and the opportunity offered by a national power grid.

Nothing concrete about how to respond to new energy intensive development.

Nothing about the absolute necessity of future hydro development to support interruptible renewables. Ten years may seem like a long time. Climate change is on a faster track.

Of course, it’s the government’s job to address these broader policy issues, you might say. Unfortunately, it is woefully deficient in the resources and expertise to do so. And its recent budget takes no steps to even begin to insulate our agricultural and industrial sectors from the now quite predictable and inevitable effects of climate change.

The IRMP tells us Hydro will be keenly watching for local, national and international “signposts” that might cause them to alter their course. So, we have government — including Ottawa — doing next to nothing and Hydro intensely scrutinizing government tea leaves. Unlike the song lyrics, time is not on our side. It’s like waiting for the tidal wave to roll over your shore before sounding an alarm.

We need a bolder approach, one that partners Hydro’s technical capacity with a directing vision from our elected government that positions Manitoba where it needs to be — where it must be — in a very short period of time to meet the accelerating changes in climate.

Sustainable development is defined as development that meets today’s needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.

Unfortunately, traditional economic analysis doesn’t give a damn about future generations. Using analytical tools, with return on investment and drastically discounting future benefits, it’s unlikely we will ever undertake another major hydroelectric development.

Future generations will have desperate need for all the renewable energy they can get, including hydro but without the luxury of being able to wait around for the decade or more required to plan, design and construct a hydro dam. It is our responsibility — we, after all, have created the climate change mess — to meet their needs now.

Admittedly this will require a virtual revolution in how to provide for future generations, and may be well beyond what one province can accomplish.

Nonetheless, as owners of Manitoba Hydro we should demand “shareholder value” — an energy supply system that is fully adapted to the effects of climate change, not only those that are already with us, but also those to be experienced in the future; the near future.

Norman Brandson is the former deputy minister of the Manitoba departments of environment, conservation and water stewardship.