Pierre Poilievre has a choice to make

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s separation referendum is federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s opportunity. If he takes it.

Alberta is ground zero for the conservative movement in Canada. It has long asserted a more populist, free market, small government hold on the Conservative Party of Canada, past and present. It has outsized political influence on the direction of the party, given the reliable 30-plus CPC seats it delivers each election.

That has grown more intense under Poilievre’s leadership. He has championed Alberta’s economic and energy interests for years now. “Alberta deserves a fair deal in this country, which means that we unblock the resources, we allow the oil and gas sector to grow, we get the federal government off their backs and out of the way,” Poilievre said recently.

Now, as the newly minted MP for Battle River-Crowfoot, deep in the old Reform and current United Conservative Party landscape, he can keep doing it. But with a visible and vocal twist — Alberta’s interests are best served by remaining in Canada.

This is both true and necessary. True in that it is hard to concoct any kind of guaranteed prosperity for an independent, landlocked Alberta, subjected to massive economic and financial uncertainties. The land of pipelines is chasing separatist pipe dreams.

Necessary in that any cavilling by Poilievre on this existential question of national unity is an automatic disqualifier for him to ever become prime minister. It’s that simple.

Early signals suggest he gets this. “I will be campaigning across the province encouraging Albertans to stay as part of the Canadian family,” he said the other week.

Good. He could say no less, but he now needs to say more.

He needs to say more for two reasons: the country’s future and his own. They are inextricably tied.

A separating Alberta would gut Canada. Never mind that Alberta would be an enfeebled orphan on the global stage. It would sunder the very nature of Canada’s Confederation. No federalist in Canada can abide this. But it would also gut the Conservative Party of Canada. Losing its Alberta base would mean it would never form government.

This is a notion some CPC caucus members have yet to comprehend.

The response to Smith’s separation referendum gambit by Poilievre’s immediate predecessor in his riding, Damien Kurek, is evidence. In a May 25 post on X, he challenged any criticism of the referendum being held, blaming it on the Liberal government. Another MP, Michelle Rempel Garner, also said as much in a media scrum, excusing Smith by putting the whole thing on Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal government.

This is party politics, not nation-building.

Albertans’ grievances have built up over time. No country arrives at such a juncture overnight.

But if the message from Poilievre’s Alberta caucus members is that this is going to be all about blame and shame, they will do two things to themselves. First, they will boost the separation vote in the Oct. 19 referendum, and they will disqualify their party and leader as having the country’s interests at heart.

Here’s the rub. You can blame the Liberals for policy choices that have alienated Albertans, especially energy and environmental ones.

But the serial failure of the Conservative Party to convince Canadians they are a serious government in waiting and should be elected is part of that. Excusing their endemic inability to reach beyond that Alberta base and vie for sufficient other votes to win is no doubt contributing to Conservative frustration.

But “blame Canada” is cheap recompense. They need to look in the mirror and start winning if they want to change the policies that are causing those grievances. That’s how democracy works.

Right now, the separation referendum means they have a choice to make. Are they on Conservative Team Canada or Conservative Team Alberta? With many provincial and federal conservatives sympathetic to and even supportive of separation, this may make the choice difficult. In fact, it is dead easy.

That’s where Poilievre comes in. His opportunity is to speak for Canada. A full-throated, unconditional roar of love and respect for his country and fellow Canadians. He is uniquely positioned to do so, as a respected voice of Alberta in Ottawa.

If he does so, he will not just undo the leadership damage he did to himself by failing to call out U.S. President Donald Trump last election until it was too late. He will reintroduce himself to future Conservative voters as a national leader able to speak to and for Canada as a whole. They will see him as a legitimate prospective prime minister, something sorely lacking for him at present.

That is a path to political redemption Poilievre should embrace. Showing Canadians he is fighting unconditionally for Canada in his own backyard will get noticed. The man who once campaigned on “Canada is broken” now needs to campaign on “Canada is better.”

That may be a hard swallow for the Conservative leader. But the alternative is even worse.

David McLaughlin is a former clerk of the executive council and cabinet secretary in the Manitoba government.