Lasting legacy or pining for a pipe dream?

The federal government is investing in major infrastructure, promising to expedite “projects of national interest” and pitching them to private investors at a summit in September.

The Manitoba government has its sights set on a pipeline and LNG export terminal at Churchill. Instead, Manitoba should be putting forward feasible, future-facing infrastructure proposals that would leave a positive lasting legacy of energy affordability, independence and security for Manitobans.

A pipeline and LNG terminal at Churchill are not viable for several reasons — the technical challenges of building a pipeline over thawing permafrost; the prohibitive cost of ice-breaking tankers to move LNG through the Arctic; and a forecasted global oversupply of LNG and uncertain long-term export markets.

Given these challenges, a private company coming out of the woodwork to invest seems exceptionally unlikely. Private proponents are also not interested in building oil pipelines to the west, and Prime Minister Mark Carney has now made clear his priority to work with Premier Danielle Smith on a West Coast pipeline, which would cost upwards of $35 billion (on top of the over $34 billion in public funds already spent on the Trans Mountain pipeline). It would seem this pours more cold water on the idea of a third publicly funded pipeline to Hudson Bay.

Instead of staking this government’s legacy on a pipeline to Churchill — a dream which past premiers also pursued and failed to secure — Premier Kinew should be vying for federal investment in projects that can and should actually be built in areas that drive innovation and leverage Manitoba’s clean energy advantage.

New and expanded east-west electricity grid connections. New wind farms, paired with grid-scale battery storage. A growing fleet and service of electric buses, with a network of EV charging stations across the province. Building retrofits and ground- or lake-source heat pumps to reduce electricity needed for heating, starting with Northern Manitoba.

This is infrastructure that Manitoba needs to remain resilient and competitive in a low-carbon future, and to meet its commitments in its net-zero strategy.

And there is precedent of past Manitoba premiers championing clean energy. In the mid-2000s, Premier Gary Doer advocated for the development of a home-grown wind power industry, resulting in Manitoba’s two wind farms being built. Campaigning in Carman ahead of the 2007 election, Doer touted the benefits of wind revenue for farmers: “When the wind was blowing in the past all there was cursing. Now there is money.”

The Manitoba government is building 600 MW of wind power — after a 15-year hiatus on new wind in the province — and 5,000 heat pumps. Expanding on these commitments to truly capitalize on Manitoba’s clean-energy potential and rapidly electrify transportation, heating and industry is a generational opportunity that should be Kinew’s legacy-defining project.

The federal government is slated to provide between $15 billion and $20 billion to Alberta’s oil pipeline project and nearly $4 billion to support LNG expansion in British Columbia. What could Manitoba achieve with a commensurate amount of federal investment, directed towards green industrial development? To take one example, $4 billion to $5 billion could support roughly 1,600 megawatts of wind and 400 megawatts of eight-hour grid-scale battery storage, providing year-round energy and sufficient firm capacity to meet near-term demand growth.

Unlike pipelines, which take a decade to build, renewable energy, electric transportation, building decarbonization, and grid infrastructure projects can be built in just a few years. Given that, these solutions would provide clear, tangible examples of success within the likely tenure of the Manitoba NDP government, in contrast to potential years of further advocacy for a project that is likely never to see the light of day.

Sandwiched between Premiers Smith and Ford, Premier Kinew has a choice — to align with petro-populists, or to champion a different vision for the province, one that future-proofs our economy and provides lasting benefits for affordability by moving beyond the fuels fueling inflation and climate catastrophes. In doing so, Manitoba could provide an example for the rest of the country in upholding responsibilities to stewardship and climate action.

As these discussions play out amid yet another record-hot, smoky, and stormy summer, the urgent need to stop expanding fossil fuel production and accelerate the clean energy transition must also be centred. Manitoba’s government can be a world leader in the energy transition if it chooses to step into the spotlight.

With sky-high popularity, Kinew has a strong position from which to leave a legacy for Manitoba that will set the direction for generations to come. But if he stays set on a pipe dream, that opportunity will be lost.

Laura Cameron is director of programs and strategy with Climate Action Team Manitoba.