Far-right gaining foothold in Germany

“Europe is going through a version of sophisticated state failure,” an analyst told the New York Times after the ultranationalist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won state-level elections on Sept. 6. By capturing 39 of 83 parliamentary seats in Saxony-Anhalt, a poorer area of east Germany with two million people, it’s closer to power than any German far-right party since the Nazi era.

It then finished first in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sept. 20, securing 38 per cent of votes. In both places, the AfD must now coax others to form a coalition government to formally assume office. Opposition groups have vowed to form a firewall against it, though their resolve may fade over time.

Yet no matter what happens next in either region, the AfD’s victories mark a major milestone. Leading in national polls, the party — already the official opposition in the Bundestag — has shattered the notion it’s unelectable given Germany’s dark history.

Politics in Europe’s anchor nation could be transformed in short order. Seven more of Germany’s 16 states head to the polls over the next two years. Federal elections are slated for early 2029.

“The seismic nature of this moment goes far beyond party tactics,” writes Jörg Lau, journalist for the newspaper Die Zeit. “Germany is entering a period of political upheaval in which the core values of the postwar republic are up for dispute.”

It wasn’t destined to be this way. The party was founded in 2013 by a handful of professors skeptical about Germany’s outsized role in the European Union. Back then, Berlin was doing the heavy lifting to bail out Greece, whose debt crisis risked economic contagion on the continent.

But over the years, the party’s mild beginnings gave way to it becoming an umbrella group for pro-Kremlin, anti-LGBTQ climate deniers and conspiracy-minded nativists.

This slide began in 2015 after then chancellor Angela Merkel welcomed 890,000 refugees and asylum seekers into the country. Her decision aggravated a divide between Germany’s wealthier, liberal western states and socially conservative former Communist ones in the east, where AfD support surged. The party then shocked observers by winning over 12 per cent of the vote in 2017 general elections, catapulting it to third-largest party status in the Bundestag.

The abrupt popularity seemingly emboldened AfD lawmakers and its hardcore base to abandon any pretenses.

Björn Höcke, who won state elections in 2024 in Thuringia but couldn’t form government, has called Berlin’s Holocaust memorial a “monument of shame.” Attendees at conferences regularly sport neo-Nazi apparel and routinely assault reporters. An influential AfD candidate in Saxony-Anhalt once equated Islam to a fungus.

Alice Weidel, one of its two national leaders, has advocated for “blood-based citizenship.” A non-profit group published an investigative report in January 2024 alleging Weidel and others gathered in a Potsdam hotel to brainstorm plans to deport naturalized German citizens. Weidel herself is a curious choice to captain an aggressively populist movement championing so-called traditional values. The 46-year-old has an elite education and background in global finance. She also lives part-time in Switzerland, is married to a woman from Sri Lanka and has two adopted sons.

Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has classified the AfD an “extreme-right group” incompatible with the country’s constitution. The party also threatens to serve as inspiration for avowed ethnonationalists elsewhere in Europe.

It’s also openly committed to undercutting German support for Ukraine. Since 2022, Berlin has provided a €100 billion ($160 billion) in combined military and civilian aid and hosted one million Ukrainian refugees. German defence tech companies are collaborating with Ukrainian forces.

Meanwhile, the nation’s business community is fretting over badly needed foreign investment being scared away at the worst possible time.

Long dependant on cheap Russian energy to fuel its industries, Germany’s export-oriented economy has languished since 2022 under Western sanctions against Moscow. A fresh onslaught of tariffs from Washington and a flood of cheap Chinese goods redirected to Europe from the U.S. this year have compounded the pain. Record-low summer water levels on the Rhine and Danube rivers — major domestic and international shipping arteries — aren’t helping either.

With just a 10 per cent approval rating, Chancellor Friedrich Merz may be forced to resign.

“Populist parties pretend to have simple answers,” Deutsche Bank’s CEO told a conference days before the Saxony-Anhalt vote. “In reality, they propagate concepts that contradict the basis of our success: openness, diversity, a strong Europe, reliable institutions and international cooperation.”

The AfD may soon be poised to test its radical ideas in real-life, beginning in a small east German state.

Kyle Volpi Hiebert is a Montreal-based political risk analyst focused on globalization, conflict and emerging technologies.